Theory of Change for Phase III of the Anti-Human Trafficking Project, The Salvation Army Uganda Territory
- Introduction / Purpose of the ToC
Brief Background of the Programme
The Salvation Army Uganda Territory (TSA-Uganda) has implemented the Anti-Human Trafficking (AHT) Project since its inception, progressing through Phases I and II to establish a robust foundation for combating modern slavery and human trafficking in Uganda’s high-risk border and transit districts. Phases I and II successfully reached over 200,000 people directly and indirectly through community-based prevention, survivor support, media engagement, and strategic partnerships, while contributing to the repatriation of over 200 Ugandan survivors from India and the strengthening of national coordination mechanisms. Building on these achievements, Phase III is a two-year consolidation phase designed to deepen impact by shifting from broad awareness-raising to practical, skills-based prevention, survivor empowerment, and evidence-driven advocacy. The project operates through a three-pillar framework—Prevention, Survivor Support and Empowerment, and Research and Advocacy—while embedding interventions within existing community, school, and faith structures for long-term sustainability.
Why a Theory of Change is Needed
A Theory of Change is essential to articulate how Phase III’s targeted interventions will address persistent gaps identified in previous phases, such as the continued prevalence of unsafe migration driven by deceptive recruitment, economic vulnerability, and weak verification systems. It provides a clear, evidence-based roadmap linking inputs, activities, and outputs to measurable outcomes and long-term impact, enabling adaptive management, accountability to stakeholders, and effective monitoring and evaluation. The ToC also facilitates communication with partners, donors, and government actors, demonstrating how community-led, survivor-centered approaches can achieve sustainable reductions in trafficking vulnerability.
Target Population and Geographic Scope
The project targets vulnerable populations in seven high-risk border and transit districts: Busia, Malaba, Lwakhakha, Tororo, Mbale, Namisindwa, and Namayingo, which serve as major migration corridors to Kenya and beyond. Primary beneficiaries include children and adolescents (through school-based platforms), youth and young job seekers (18–35 years, particularly school dropouts and single parents), women and girls at heightened risk, transport-sector workers (boda-boda riders, taxi operators, truck drivers), community influencers, faith leaders, and survivors of trafficking. Interventions focus on deepening engagement in existing hotspot communities and expanding to five additional public schools in underserved MSHT areas within these districts, ensuring geographic continuity and concentrated impact.
Alignment with National Policies or Donor Priorities
Phase III aligns closely with Uganda’s National Action Plan on Trafficking in Persons, the Coordination Office for Prevention of Trafficking in Persons framework, and the Ministry of Gender, Labour and Social Development priorities. It supports the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, the Palermo Protocol, and Sustainable Development Goals 5 (gender equality), 8 (decent work), and 16 (peaceful societies). The project is fully consistent with The Salvation Army’s global Modern Slavery & Human Trafficking Response (MSHTR) strategy, the Fight for Freedom framework, and the Territorial MSHTR National Action Plan, ensuring coherence with organisational commitments to survivor dignity, community resilience, and ethical migration.
Theory of Change Narrative
If we leverage the established foundations from Phases I and II—trained community champions, functional Rights of Children (RoC) clubs, trusted faith networks, transport-sector alliances, survivor case management expertise, and national partnerships—and invest in targeted capacity building, practical safe-migration tools, survivor empowerment, and evidence generation,
then communities, schools, youth groups, and transport actors will gain actionable skills to identify and prevent risky migration, deceptive recruitment, and early trafficking signs; survivors will achieve stronger recovery, economic resilience, and leadership roles; and multi-stakeholder systems will become more coordinated and evidence-informed.
Because trafficking in these border districts is driven primarily by unsafe migration decisions rather than lack of awareness, and because embedding prevention and protection within trusted, existing local structures (schools, Corps, VSLAs, sports clubs) fosters ownership, accountability, and long-term behaviour change.
Ultimately, high-risk border communities will become resilient against modern slavery and human trafficking, with reduced incidence of exploitation, empowered survivors contributing to prevention, and sustainable systems ensuring ongoing protection, leading to safer migration pathways, dignified livelihoods, and stronger national responses in line with Uganda’s anti-trafficking commitments.
Key Assumptions
- Community and institutional actors remain committed to implementing action plans and integrating anti-trafficking practices into routine activities.
- Government and cross-border partners continue to support referral pathways, repatriation mechanisms, and policy implementation.
- Economic and security conditions in border areas allow consistent access and participation.
Risks and Mitigation
- Economic pressures driving migration: Mitigated through livelihood linkages and job verification tools.
- Stigma or fear of reporting: Addressed via trusted faith/community entry points and survivor-centered approaches.
- Staff/partnership turnover: Managed through institutional embedding and ongoing training.
This Theory of Change will guide project implementation, monitoring, and adaptive learning throughout Phase III, ensuring measurable progress toward resilient, trafficking-free communities.
