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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF HIV/AIDS IMPACT ON HEALTH STATUS IN CHILDREN AGED 15 YEARS AND BELOW

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.0 Introduction

This chapter outlines the background, problem statement, objectives, research questions, significance, and scope of the study.

1.1 Background

Over the past two decades, HIV/AIDS has remained a global pandemic, claiming millions of lives, destabilizing families, and leaving countless children orphaned (UNAIDS, 2009). The disease disproportionately affects working-age populations, undermining economic growth and social development while threatening political stability in some regions.

By 2006, approximately 39.5 million people were living with HIV, including 2.3 million children under 15 (UNAIDS, 2009). Sub-Saharan Africa bore the greatest burden, with 24.7 million infections. Despite advances in antiretroviral therapy (ART), which has transformed HIV into a manageable chronic condition in developed nations, access remains limited in low-income countries, where the majority of infections occur.

In Uganda, HIV prevalence among adults (18-59 years) stands at 6.7%, with higher rates in urban areas like Kampala (8.5%) (MOH & ORC Macro, 2006). The epidemic’s impact on health and socioeconomic stability underscores the need for targeted interventions, particularly for vulnerable groups such as children.

While body composition studies in HIV-positive individuals have been conducted in developed nations (Ott et al., 1993; Shikuma et al., 2004), limited data exists in resource-constrained settings. This study aims to analyze trends in HIV/AIDS among Ugandan children under 15, assessing its impact on health status.

1.2 Problem Statement

Despite increased ART availability for adults (18-50 years), HIV/AIDS continues to affect children under 15, with rising infection rates posing a significant public health challenge. Malnutrition, increased energy demands, and metabolic disruptions exacerbate health outcomes in HIV-positive children (Macallan, 1995; Piwoz & Preble, 2000). Despite government and international efforts, pediatric HIV remains understudied. This research investigates temporal trends in HIV/AIDS prevalence and health outcomes among Ugandan children.

1.3 Objectives

1.3.1 General Objective

To conduct a time series analysis of HIV/AIDS impact on health status in children aged ≤15 years.

1.3.2 Specific Objectives

1. To determine HIV/AIDS distribution among children under 15.
2. To forecast HIV/AIDS prevalence in this demographic.

1.4 Research Hypotheses

• H₀₁: No significant trend exists in HIV/AIDS prevalence among children ≤15.
• H₀₂: No seasonal variation affects HIV/AIDS prevalence in this group.

1.5 Scope of the Study

1.5.1 Study Scope

• Distribution of HIV/AIDS in children ≤15.
• Regional and residential prevalence comparisons.
• Forecasting future prevalence trends.

1.5.3 Time Scope

Data from 2000–2015 will be analyzed.

1.6 Significance of the Study

1. Research: Enhances understanding of pediatric HIV distribution.
2. Policy: Informs government strategies by comparing regional prevalence.
3. Academia: Provides a foundation for forecasting models.

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.0 Introduction

This chapter synthesizes existing research on pediatric HIV/AIDS.

2.1 HIV/AIDS Distribution in Children ≤15

HIV/AIDS, first identified in the 1980s, has caused over 20 million deaths globally (MOH, 2005). Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains the epicenter, home to 68% of infections (UNAIDS, 2010). Despite ART, pediatric access lags due to limited drug formulations and healthcare capacity (Laufer et al., 2008).

Knowledge gaps persist in low-resource settings, where malnutrition and recurrent infections accelerate mortality (Obimbo, 2006). In Uganda, only 26% of eligible children receive ART, falling short of WHO targets (WHO, 2010).

2.2 Forecasting Pediatric HIV Prevalence in Uganda

Without intervention, mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) accounts for 20,000 annual infections in Uganda (Serwadda, 2006). Early ART improves survival, yet <10% of global ART recipients are children (Chilongozi, 2008). Prognosis remains poor in resource-limited settings, where comorbidities like severe malnutrition prevail.

Key Improvements:

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