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2.0 Rising temperature on agricultural productivity.
The capacity of agriculture to sustain growing populations has long been a global concern and remains a key focus of policy discussions. Despite significant advancements in food production over the past five decades, food security continues to be a challenge in many regions. According to FAO estimates for 2000–2002 (FAO 2005b), approximately 850 million people in developing countries suffer from hunger, with half of them residing in Asia. The eradication of poverty and hunger was identified as a priority within the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), established in 2000. One of the targets set under these goals aimed to reduce by half the number of people experiencing hunger between 1990 and 2015 (World Bank 2003). Achieving this food security objective remains a significant challenge, with projections indicating that global cereal production must increase substantially by 2025.
Rising temperatures impact soil health by accelerating organic matter decomposition, leading to the depletion of essential nutrients. Lal (2004) highlighted that increased microbial activity in warmer soils causes rapid nutrient cycling, which, if not managed properly, can result in nutrient loss and reduced soil fertility. Additionally, higher temperatures contribute to increased soil salinity and reduced moisture retention, adversely affecting crop growth (FAO, 2021).
Higher temperatures lead to increased evapotranspiration, exacerbating water scarcity in agricultural regions. Studies by Wang et al. (2017) indicate that water demand for irrigation increases as temperatures rise, putting additional pressure on already limited water resources. Drought-prone regions are particularly vulnerable, with declining groundwater levels threatening long-term agricultural sustainability (IPCC, 2021). The adverse effects of rising temperatures extend beyond reduced crop productivity to economic and social dimensions. Smallholder farmers in developing countries face the greatest risks, as they lack access to adaptive technologies and financial resources (Morton, 2007). Furthermore, food security concerns arise as lower yields lead to higher food prices, affecting vulnerable populations (Nelson et al., 2014).
Crop yield growth has slowed in many regions due to declining investments in agricultural research, irrigation, rural infrastructure, and worsening water scarcity (FAO, 2001). Climate change further exacerbates food security challenges. Some studies (e.g., Parry et al., 1999) suggest that moderate warming (up to 1°C above historical averages) may not significantly impact food supply, assuming farmers adapt to changing conditions and benefit from increased CO₂ levels.
2.2 Rainfall patterns on agricultural productivity.
Climate change is a natural phenomenon that has become a major global concern due to its impact on agriculture, water availability, markets, and natural resources. Agriculture is a complex and highly sensitive sector influenced by climate, management practices, market dynamics, and technological advancements, all of which affect productivity and profitability. Climate is the primary factor determining agricultural output. Inconsistent rainfall patterns, including delayed onset, erratic distribution, and early cessation, negatively impact crop yields. Studies by Trenberth (2011) indicate that rainfall variability affects crop germination, growth stages, and overall yield. Insufficient rainfall during critical periods, such as flowering and grain filling, can severely reduce productivity (Rosenzweig et al., 2014).
Adequate rainfall is essential for maintaining soil moisture, which supports plant growth. However, excessive rainfall can lead to soil erosion and nutrient leaching, reducing soil fertility (Lal, 2004). Conversely, prolonged drought conditions deplete soil moisture, making it difficult for crops to thrive (FAO, 2021).
Rainfall patterns influence the availability of water resources for irrigation. Declining or unpredictable rainfall can reduce river flows and groundwater recharge, creating water shortages for irrigation-dependent agriculture (Shah et al., 2019). Regions that rely heavily on rainfed agriculture are particularly vulnerable to yield losses due to irregular rainfall (IPCC, 2021).
Understanding the impact of climate change on human livelihoods, animal populations, and natural resources underscores the importance of adopting effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Between 1970 and 2004, global annual anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased by 70%, further exacerbating climate-related challenges. Sustainable adaptation and mitigation strategies are crucial in reducing the adverse effects of climate change on natural resources, crop production, and food security.
2.3 Extreme weather events on agricultural productivity
Droughts are one of the most detrimental extreme weather events for agriculture, as they reduce soil moisture, hinder seed germination, and lower water availability for irrigation. Prolonged droughts can cause significant declines in crop yields, particularly in rain-fed agriculture. maize and wheat production in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have been severely affected by recurrent droughts, Deforestation and land use change are crucial aspects of agricultural activities affecting climate change. Large-scale deforestation is often carried out to expand agricultural land. One-third of the global land area experienced changes between 1960 and 2019, which is four times the extent estimated by previous long-term land change assessments. Geographically diverse processes of land use change, including afforestation and agricultural abandonment in the northern hemisphere, and deforestation and agricultural expansion in the southern hemisphere. This not only diminishes the forest’s capacity as a carbon sink but also significantly increases the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (Negi, & Azeez, 2022).
Flooding leads to soil erosion, nutrient leaching, and waterlogging, which adversely affect plant growth. Drought and flooding accounted for more than 70% of the crop yield reductions in the United States in 2011 (Bailey-Serres et al., 2012). The rising trend in precipitation has increased crop damage and off-farm loss of soil and nutrients from excess water (Morton, Hobbs, Arbuckle, & Loy, 2015). Soil waterlogging resulting from extreme precipitation events is another major contributor to the crop production losses, in addition to floods. Crop production losses due to temporarily flooded or saturated soils are a persistent problem in the Midwestern United States (Luce, 2015; Wiebold, 2015). Excessive water can suffocate plant roots and promote the spread of plant diseases. floods have led to extensive damage to rice and soybean crops in Southeast Asia, causing food shortages and economic losses (Yuan et al., 2024).
Heatwaves increase evapotranspiration rates, leading to soil dryness and heat stress in crops. High temperatures during critical growth phases, such as flowering, reduce grain formation and overall crop productivity, show that U.S. corn yields decline significantly when temperatures exceed 30°C, with each additional degree causing an exponential drop in productivity (Carrera, Savin, & Slafer, 2024).
