TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF ROAD ACCIDENTS IN UGANDA (2010–2016)

CHAPTER ONE

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the Study

Transportation is essential for daily activities, whether for work, leisure, commerce, or industry. Raw materials must be transported from production sites to factories, and finished goods must reach markets and consumers. As such, transport serves as the backbone of economic and social connectivity (Somboonyanon, 2003).

Research indicates that 70–80% of traffic accidents result from human error. However, the term “human error” is often misleading, as it fails to account for factors such as alcohol and drug impairment, inexperience, and distracted driving, which significantly contribute to road injuries and fatalities (Kamuhanda & Schmidt, 2009).

Globally, road crashes cost over US $500 bi ll i o nann u a ll y * *, w i t h d e v e l o p in g co u n t r i es b e a r in g a pp ro x ima t e l y * * U S$ 65 billion of this burden. In Sub-Saharan Africa, crash-related expenses are estimated at US $3.7 bi ll i o n p erye a r * *, w i t h S o u t h A f r i c aa l o n e a cco u n t in g f or * * U S$ 2 billion. Relative to national economies, road accidents consume 0.8% of Ethiopia’s GNP, 1% of South Africa’s, 2.3% of Zambia’s, 2.7% of Botswana’s, and nearly 5% of Kenya’s (WHO, 2010).

A Global Road Safety Project (GRSP) study revealed that 10% of global road deaths occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa, despite the region having only 4% of the world’s registered vehicles. In contrast, developed nations, which possess 60% of global vehicles, accounted for just 14% of road fatalities. However, due to underreporting in police records, actual fatality figures in Africa are likely much higher. Adjusted estimates suggest 68,500–82,200 deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa for 2000, while health data indicates 190,191 fatalities (Ben maamar, Ellis, & Dunkerley, 2002; CrossRoads, 2013).

Uganda faces a severe road safety crisis, with 190 deaths per 10,000 vehicles—one of the highest rates globally (Castillo-Manzano, Castro-Nuño, & Fageda, 2013; Krug, 2012). The WHO (2009) recorded 2,838 fatalities between 2006 and 2007, highlighting Uganda’s alarming road safety challenges. Only Ethiopia surpasses Uganda in road fatality rates (Roehler et al., 2013).

Poor road conditions, inadequate signage, and weak infrastructure contribute to accidents, damaging human capital and business assets (Demyttenaere et al., 2009). Additionally, inefficient road management systems and lack of urban transport regulation worsen congestion and accidents. In Kampala, traffic jams and crashes cost businesses 23,813 person-hours daily (Kamuhanda & Schmidt, 2009).

Road accidents have devastating effects, including:

Destruction of business assets and human capital
Overburdened healthcare systems
Loss of lives, disrupting families and communities (Osoba, 2012)

According to Uganda Police (2010), there were 2,954 traffic fatalities in 2010. The Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS, 2010) reported a 30% increase in crashes—from 11,758 in 2008 to 22,699 in 2009—with 33,900 vehicles involved in accidents in 2010 (Ministry of Works and Transport [MOWT], 2011).

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Road crashes in Kampala cost Uganda 2.9% of its GDP, with 2,954 fatalities in 2010 alone (WHO, 2013). Annual economic losses from accidents exceed US $101 million (WHO, 2013).

Despite heavy government investment in road infrastructure, Uganda continues to experience some of the highest accident rates in Africa. Weak transport regulations, poor road maintenance, and traffic congestion hinder economic growth (Kiggundu, 2007; Sietchiping, Permezel, & Ngomsi, 2012). Given that roads are vital for trade and mobility (Cornish & Mugova, 2014; UNRF, 2010b), this study seeks to analyze road accident trends in Uganda (2006–2015).

1.3 Purpose of the Study

This study aims to examine road accident trends in Uganda from 2006 to 2015.

1.4 Objectives of the Study

To determine the distribution of accidents in Kampala.
To compare accident prevalence by residence and region.
To forecast future accident trends.

1.5 Hypotheses of the Study

H₀₁: There is no significant trend in accident prevalence in Kampala.
H₀₂: There is no seasonal pattern in accident occurrences.

1.6 Scope of the Study

1.6.1 Content Scope

The study focuses on trends in road accidents in Uganda.

1.6.2 Time Scope

The research will be conducted between February and August 2017.

1.7 Significance of the Study

The findings will:

Inform policymakers on the economic and social impacts of road accidents.
Provide academic insights into accident causation.
Guide government strategies in mitigating road safety risks.