Research proposal

Time series analysis of milk production in Uganda. A case study of Sameer Agriculture and livestock

Limited.2014-2016

ABSTRACT

The topic of study was time series analysis of milk production in uganda. a case study of sameer agriculture and livestock limited.2014-2016, and study was guided by the following objectives; to determine the distribution/trend of milk production in Uganda and to forecast the milk production in Uganda. The research hypotheses was There is no trend for milk production in Uganda and .The study scope covered the distribution of Trend for milk production in Uganda, forecast milk production in Uganda over the next 5 years in Uganda and evaluate factors that determine milk production in Uganda. The period of data to be considered was from 2014-2016.

Milk production in Uganda has been declining and there is need for the government to support the farmers in ensuring the output in increased.

The level of milk production in Uganda has also shown that there needs to be an increase in the investments by the government.

The government needs to support cattle keepers with modern milk systems to enable milk production to increase.

Milk producers in Uganda need to be educated by the professionals on the best ways of increasing their milk output.

There needs to be government support to the farmers.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1Background of the study

Approximately 150 million households around the globe are engaged in milk production. In most developing countries, milk is produced by smallholders, and milk production contributes to household livelihoods, food security and nutrition. Milk provides relatively quick returns for small-scale producers and is an important source of cash income. There are over 264 million dairy cows’ worldwide, producing nearly 600 million tonnes of milk every year (FAOstat).
The global average for milk production is approximately 2,200 litres per cow (FAOstat 2012).
The largest producer of milk is the USA producing over 87 million tonnes per annum
( FAOstat 2012). India has the greatest number of dairy cows in the world with over 40 million cows.

Population growth, rising income and increased urbanization in the African countries as well as the subsidized prices of European beef and dairy exports have helped to stimulate the demand for livestock imports in sub-Saharan Africa. Africa has about 14% of the world bovine population but produces 16% and 3 % of the world beef and milk output respectively. In contrast, developed countries have about 30% of the world bovine population but produce 71 % and 77 % of the world beef and milk output. The number of sheep and goats in Africa constitutes 22% of the world population but contributes only 17% of mutton and goat meat output. The comparable figures for developed countries are 36% of population and 46% of output. The low yields have obviously contributed little to increases in output.

Currently, Uganda produces 1.3 billion litres of milk per year, of which 30 percent is consumed on the farm and 70 percent is marketed to consumers (Balikowa, 2006).There are five main milk producing regions or milk sheds in Uganda and 80 percent of the milk is produced in the southern (south-western milk shed) alone accounts for over 30 percent of the total milk production and therefore constitutes the major source of marketable milk in the country. The average milk production per cow per day is quite low (less than 10 litres) that account for 93.3 percent and only 0.5 percent cows produce 20 litres per day with Friesian cows being most productive. Elepu (2006) and Balikowa (2003) observed that milk collection in Uganda includes direct pick up from the producers by agents, co-operative assembly and individual supply (producers) deliver directly to pick up points. Majority of the milk is collected and distributed through Milk Collection Centers which are owned by private traders. Balikowa (2003) noted that there are two milk collection systems; the formal and informal channels. The informal milk collection channel is characterized by lack of milk collection infrastructure, limited quality control and selling of milk on credit but in some cases cash is paid. The common means of transport at farm level is the bicycles. In Uganda, milk processing is handled by over 10 private companies and over 100 small scale processors (Elepu, 2006). The processing companies include Sameer Agriculture and livestock limited, Jesa Farm Dairy, GBK Dairy products, White Nile Dairy, Birunga Dairy, Teso Fresh Dairy, Paramount Dairies Ltd, Alpha Dairy Products and MADDO Dairies Ltd (DDA, 2008). The products processed by companies are cheese, cream, ice cream, yoghurt, cultured milk, butter and ghee. Sikawa, & Mugisha, (2011). found that on farm processing of milk is done at limited scale and approximately 9 percent of farmers’ process milk into ghee mainly for home consumption while 2 percent make other products particularly yoghurt and ghee and 89 percent do not make any milk product.

1.2 Statement of the problem

The dairy industry remains a key livestock component with significant contribution to food security and income in pastoral communities of Uganda (FAO, 2008; ILRI, 2007). Dairy policies have been relaxed to allow market forces to determine farm level prices. This has exposed farmers to lower milk prices while downstream retail prices are higher (Artukoglu et.al, 2008, Tsougiannis et al, 2008). This has resulted into considerable mistrust among market chain actors in developing countries (Markus et al., 2008). Milk production in Uganda has been declining over the years, the Sameer agriculture and livestock has faced numerous challenges in the milk production of Uganda, this is due to the declining quantity of milk production in Uganda. According to Elepu, (2006), about 80 percent of marketed milk still passes through traditional informal marketing channels in spite of high profile given to formal milk marketing channel.

This challenge in the milk production of Uganda has led the researcher to investigate into the time series analysis of milk production in Uganda, a case study of sameer agriculture and livestock limited.

1.3 Objectives of the study.

1.3.1 General objective.

The general objective of the study was to determine the time series analysis of milk production in Uganda.

1.4 Specific objectives.

To determine the distribution/trend of milk production in Uganda.
To forecast the milk production in Uganda.

1.5 Research hypotheses.

Ho₁: There is no trend for milk production in Uganda.

1.5 Scope of the study

The study scope covered the following aspects; study scope, time scope and geographical scope.

1.5.1 Study scope

The study scope covered the distribution of Trend for milk production in Uganda, forecast milk production in Uganda over the next 5 years in Uganda and evaluate factors that determine milk production in Uganda.

1.5.3 Time scope

The period of data to be considered was from 2014-2016.

1.6 Significance of the study

Improved performance of the dairy industry will only be meaningful if farm level marketing strategies are efficient (MFPED, 2007). Therefore, the analysis of milk distribution is essential for dairy development at micro level and in formulating plans for improvement in the dairy sector through formulation of a proper marketing channel and increased employment generation in agriculture. The study is to act as a working document for both the government and other stakeholders in addressing the constraints faced by dairy farmers participating in formal milk marketing channel for them to benefit from current high demand of dairy products. For policy implementers like extension agents, study results put them in a better position to enhance formal milk marketing channel after being enlightened with factors that affect the channel participation.