Research proposal sample

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF ROAD ACCIDENTS IN UGANDA

FROM 2010 TO 2016

CHAPTER ONE

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

Everybody travels whether it is to be work, play shop or do business. All raw materials must be conveyed from the land to the place of manufacturing or usage, and all goods must be moved from factory to the market place and from the staff to the customer. Transport is the means by which those activities occur; it is the cement that binds the together the communities and their activities (Somboonyanon, 2003).

Most investigations have revealed that 70% to 80% of all traffic accidents are due to human error. The term human error however is often controversial for. It doesn’t satisfactory describe that large number of injuries and deaths that occurs on the road as the result of driving errors while abilities to do so are impaired by alcohol or drugs, lack of experience, lack at distribution of attention (Kamuhanda & Schmidt, 2009).

The annual cost of road crashes is in excess of US $500 billion, and in the developing world the estimated cost is about US $65 billion each year. Due to the scarcity of costing data for African countries, it is difficult to make a precise cost of road crashes in Sub-Saharan Africa. The current estimate of costs of crashes in the continent is US$ 3.7 billion per year, of which South Africa alone accounts for 2 billion. However, the estimated costs as a percentage of the national Gross National Product (GNP) in most African countries range from about 0.8% in Ethiopia and 1% in South Africa to 2.3% in Zambia and 2.7% in Botswana to almost 5% in Kenya (WHO, 2010).

A recent Global Road Safety Project (GRSP) study shows that about 10 per cent of global road deaths in 1999 took place in Sub-Saharan Africa where only 4 per cent of global vehicles are registered. Conversely, in the entire developed world, with 60 per cent of all globally registered vehicles, only 14 per cent of road deaths occurred. However, given the widely recognized problem of under-reporting of road deaths in Africa (like the rest of the developing world); the true figures are likely to be much higher, as the police. reported road fatalities represent only the tip of the injury pyramid. According to this GRSP study, the adjusted true estimate of total road deaths for all Sub-Saharan African countries for the year 2000, based on the police department’s records, ranges between 68,500 and 82,200. However, the estimated fatality figure of 190,191 for Sub-Saharan Africa presented in the 2004 World Report, based on health care data, is much higher, and reflects the magnitude of under-reporting in police statistics (Ben maamar, Ellis, & Dunkerley, 2002; CrossRoads, 2013).

Traffic injuries and fatalities numbers are growing , making Ugandan roads unsafe. Uganda has the highest instances of international traffic injuries and fatalities rating with 190-deaths per 10,000 vehicles (Castillo-Manzano, Castro-Nuño, & Fageda, 2013; Krug, 2012; Raffo, Bliss, Shotten, Sleet, & Blanchard, 2013; Sleet, Baldwin, Dellinger, & Dinh-Zarr, 2011).

The World Health Organization (WHO; 2009) reported 2,838 fatalities for the period 2006 to 2007. The two figures indicated that the traffic injuries and fatalities in Uganda are high undermining road safety in urban transportation.

According to the WHO, Ethiopia has the highest rate of fatalities per vehicle in the world. Uganda ranks second in road fatality rates in the world behind Ethiopia. Emergency medical systems are often poor and injury prevention programmes are rarely available, (Roehler et al., 2013).

A high percentage of persons and vehicles involved in the road crashes affect human capital and business assets (Demyttenaere et al., 2009). The lack of institutional capacity to maintain, rehabilitate, and reconstruct roads within the RMS leads to poorly maintained roads, missing or incorrect road signs and markings, and poor vertical and horizontal alignments, which render road users prone to accidents (Misra et al., 2003).

The increasing road accidents and traffic jams are caused by weak road management systems and a lack of urban transport regulator. Increasing road accidents and traffic jams within the Kampala business district of Uganda cost businesses 23,813 person-hours per day (Kamuhanda & Schmidt, 2009).

Road accidents cause (a) damage and destroy business assets and human capital, (b) increase stress to health facilities, and (c) death of family members and societal and communal settings without strategies to stem the causes (Osoba, 2012). The Uganda Police (2010) indicated that there were 2,954-traffic fatalities in Uganda. According to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS; 2010 ), road crashes increased by 30% from 11,758 in 2008 to 22,699 in 2009, and about 33,900 vehicles were involved in road crashes during 2010. There are increasing traffic fatalities and destruction of vehicles involved in traffic crashes (Ministry of Works and Transport [MOWT], 2011).

1.2 Statement of the problem

The road traffic collisions in the business district of Kampala, Uganda cost the Uganda economy 2.9% of the GDP with 2,954 traffic fatalities reported in 2010 (WHO, 2013). Road crashes, injuries, and deaths cost Uganda US $101 million each year (WHO, 2013).

The current weak transport, regulatory agencies, and the poorly maintained roads contribute to traffic congestion and road accidents and, consequently, affect the business and economy of Uganda (Kiggundu, 2007; Sietchiping, Permezel, & Ngomsi, 2012). Roads are among the conduits for transporting goods and services (Cornish & Mugova, 2014; Dewar, 2011; Gollin & Rogerson, 2010; Uganda National Road Fund [UNRF], 2010b).

The roads sector in Uganda is some of the most funded institutions in Uganda, however despite of the investment by the government the roads accidents in Uganda are some of the highest in Uganda, this study therefore intends to investigate into trends of road transport analysis in Uganda

1.3 purpose of the study

The study intends to examine the trends in road accidents in Uganda from 2006-2015.

1.4 Objectives of the study

To determine the distribution of accidents in Kampala.
To compare accidents prevalence by residence and region.

To forecast accident prevalence.

1.5 Hypothesis of the study

Ho_1:There is no trend for accidents prevalence in Kampala.
Ho_2:There is no seasonality for accidents prevalence.

1.6 Scope of the study

1.6.1 Content scope.

The study will specifically provide in-depth examination on trends in road accidents in Uganda.

1.6.2 Time scope.

The study will be carried out from February to August 2017.

1.7 Significance of the study

The findings of the study will be beneficial in the following ways;

The study will help policy makers have information regarding the challenges that is brought about in the country as a result of road accidents
The study will also help academicians have information on the causes of road accidents.

The study will help the government officials have knowledge and understand how to mitigate the risks that they face in road accidents.