Research proposal sample

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF HIV/AIDS IMPACT ON HEALTH STATUS IN CHILDREN AGED 15 YEARS AND BELOW

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

This chapter outlines the background, problem statement, objectives, research questions, significance, and scope of the study.

1.1 Background

Over the past two decades, HIV/AIDS has spread globally, claiming millions of lives, disrupting families, and leaving countless children orphaned (UNAIDS, 2009). The disease primarily affects the most productive age groups, significantly weakening workforces, reversing socioeconomic progress, and even threatening political stability in some regions.

By the end of 2006, approximately 39.5 million people were living with HIV, including 2.3 million children under 15 (UNAIDS, 2009). Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains the hardest-hit region, accounting for 68% of global infections. Despite advancements in antiretroviral therapy (ART), 2.9 million people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2006.

In Uganda, an estimated 1 million people live with HIV (MOH & ORC Macro, 2006). The HIV prevalence among adults (18-59 years) was 6.7%, with Kampala district recording the highest rate at 8.5%. The epidemic’s impact extends beyond health, affecting economic and social stability.

While ART has transformed HIV into a manageable chronic condition in developed nations, access remains limited in low-resource settings (UNAIDS, 2009). Studies in developed countries indicate body composition changes in HIV-positive individuals on HAART, but similar research is scarce in developing regions (Schwenk, 1999; Wanke, 2002). This study aims to conduct a time series analysis of HIV/AIDS trends in children under 15, assessing its impact on health status.

1.2 Problem Statement

The rising availability of antiretroviral drugs among adults (18-50 years) has improved survival rates but poses nutritional challenges for people living with HIV (PLHIV) (MOH & ORC Macro, 2006). HIV increases energy demands, reduces nutrient absorption, and leads to weight loss (Macallan, 1995; Babamento & Kotler, 1997). Despite government and international efforts, Uganda continues to face high HIV rates among children under 15, necessitating further investigation.

1.3 Objectives

1.3.1 General Objective

To analyze the time series trends of HIV/AIDS prevalence and its impact on health status in children aged ≤15 years.

1.3.2 Specific Objectives

1. To determine the distribution of HIV/AIDS among children under 15.
2. To forecast HIV/AIDS prevalence in this age group in Uganda.

1.4 Research Hypotheses

• H₀₁: There is no significant trend in HIV/AIDS prevalence among children under 15.
• H₀₂: There is no seasonality in HIV/AIDS prevalence among children under 15.

1.5 Scope of the Study

1.5.1 Study Scope

• Distribution of HIV/AIDS among children under 15.
• Comparison of prevalence by residence (urban/rural) and region.
• Forecasting future prevalence trends.

1.5.2 Time Scope

Data from 2000–2015 will be analyzed.

1.6 Significance of the Study

• Researchers: Provides insights into HIV/AIDS distribution patterns.
• Government: Supports policy decisions by comparing regional and residential prevalence.
• Academicians: Enhances forecasting models for pediatric HIV/AIDS trends.

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Distribution of HIV/AIDS Among Children Under 15

HIV/AIDS, first identified in 1980, has since infected 38 million people worldwide (MOH, 2005). The epidemic spreads unevenly, with Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) bearing the highest burden—68% of global cases (UNAIDS, 2010).

Despite global efforts, ART access remains limited in developing nations (UNAIDS, 2004). Knowledge and education play crucial roles in prevention, yet misconceptions persist (UNAIDS, 2005). Studies show that early HIV/AIDS education reduces risky behaviors (Adewole & Lawoyin, 2004).

2.2 Forecasting HIV/AIDS Prevalence in Ugandan Children

An estimated 2 million children live with HIV globally, 90% in SSA (WHO, 2010). Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) remains the primary infection route, with high mortality rates in resource-limited settings (Laufer et al., 2008).

In Uganda, 150,000 children are HIV-positive, yet only 26% receive ART (Obimbo, 2006). Without intervention, 20,000 new pediatric infections occur annually (WHO, 2010). Maternal health, malnutrition, and recurrent infections contribute to high child mortality (Chilongozi, 2008).

CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY

3.1 Research Design

A quantitative approach using secondary data from Ministry of Health records.

3.2 Data Sources

• Ministry of Health databases
• Published journals and reports

3.3 Data Analysis

3.3.1 Descriptive Statistics

• Graphs and tables summarizing trends.

3.3.2 Time Series Analysis

• Multiplicative model: Yt=Tt×StYt​=Tt​×St​ (Trend × Seasonality).
• Run’s test for stationarity.
• Kruskal-Wallis test for seasonality.

3.3.3 ARIMA Modeling

• Box-Jenkins method for forecasting.
• ANOVA to compare prevalence by region and residence.

3.4 Ethical Considerations

• Data used strictly for academic purposes.
• Confidentiality maintained throughout the study.