Farming in africa

ANALYSIS ON THE VULNERABILITY OF SMALL HOLDER URBAN HORTICULTURAL FARMERS TO AGRICULTURAL RISKS

IN INDUSTRIAL DIVISION-MBALE.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.0 Introduction

This chapter presents background of the study, the problem statement, purpose, objectives of the study, research questions, study scope, justification of the study, significance, Hypotheses, conceptual framework, as well as operational definition of key terms and concepts.

1.1 Background of the study

The section presents, historical background, theoretical, contextual background, conceptual background.

1. I.1 Historical Background

The history of Urban Horticultural dates back to about 3,500 B.C., according to the American Society of Landscape Architects’ (ASLA), in the ancient Mesopotamian farmers began setting a side plot for growing crops in the cities. This was to supplement food got from rural areas and also prevent the city dwellers from going hungry however due to the congestion in the cities the food crops grown were mainly on subsistence scale (Von Baeyer, 2010).

Von Baeyer, (2010) further indicates that as the level of urbanization increases at accelerating speed, the interest in the role of agriculture and its potential in cities is renewed In Israel, the early Zionist settlers in the 1920s saw small urban farms as critical to the development of a new Israeli society. By 1942, there were more than 4,600 urban farms, most of which were between 1,000 and 1,999 square meters. Early on, then, urban farms were ideological and connected with the goals of the Zionist movement, In the first master plan of Israel in 1951, urban farms had a protected place.

The practice of Horticulture globally is essential due to the fact that around the world, more than enough food is produced to feed the global population but as many as 811 million people still go hungry and due to urban poverty the low income earners are unable to purchase food, After steadily declining for a decade, world hunger is on the rise, affecting 9.9 percent of people globally (Mouloudj et al., 2020). From 2019 to 2020, the number of undernourished people grew by as many as 161 million, a crisis driven largely by conflict, climate change, and other agriculture risks which are in the agricultural supply chain (Laborde et al., 2020).

Agricultural production is subject to many uncertainties. Any farm production decision plan is typically associated with multiple potential outcomes with different probabilities. Many events related to weather, market developments and other hazards cannot be controlled by the farmer but have a direct incidence on the returns from farming. In this context, the farmer has to manage the risk in farming as part of his whole management of the farming business (Azunre et al., 2019), in line to this FAO, (2017) indicates that the agriculture sectors which includes crop and livestock production as well as forestry, fisheries and aquaculture  face many risks, such as climate and market volatility, pests and diseases, extreme weather events, and an ever-increasing number of protracted crises and conflicts, the report points out that between 2005 and 2015 natural disasters cost the agricultural sectors of developing country economies a staggering $96 billion in damaged or lost crop and livestock production, $48 billion of which occurred in Asia. Drought, which has battered farmers globally, was one of the leading culprits, FAO documented that 83 per cent of all drought-caused economic losses were absorbed by agriculture to the tune of $29 billion (Snapp et al., 2018).

Many risks directly affect farmers´ production decisions and welfare. In response to the potential impact of these uncertain events farmers implement diverse risk management strategies in the context of his particular production plan, his portfolio of financial, physical and human capital, and his degree of aversion to risk. These risk management strategies may include decisions on-farm, changes in portfolio structure, use of market instruments, government programs, and diversification to other source of income. Indeed, many general agricultural support policies have risk management implications and interfere with risk management decisions, however FAO further indicates that for both Africa as well as for Latin America and the Caribbean, drought was the costliest disaster, resulting in crop and livestock losses of $10.7 and $13 billion, respectively, between 2005 and 2015. African farmers notched up more than $6 billion in losses in that period from crop pests and animal diseases, Small Island developing States are particularly vulnerable to tsunamis, earthquakes, storms and floods. Their economic losses from disasters jumped from $8.8 billion for the period 2000-2007 to over $14 billion between 2008-2015, the report shows and on the same note other risks types like diseases on animals led to massive losses, like Rift Valley Fever and also addressed conflict and Syria conflict led to the agriculture losses of worth up to $16 billion (Aryal et al., 2020).

In addition, some governments implement specific agricultural risk management policies on the basis of efficiency or equity rationales. The complexity of these interactions requires that governments make significant efforts for coherence, particularly among different policies and between policies and the development of market strategies. Any classification of risk in agriculture is arbitrary. Boundaries between different sources of risk are often blurred. Five main sources of risk can be retained from the literature (Harwood et al, 1999): production, markets, finance, institutions, and other. Production risks are associated with all events that make final production outcome uncertain when production decisions are taken. They include most climatic events, such as floods or droughts, pests and diseases, and any other hazardous events that may affect yields in agriculture or production from livestock.

The Horticulture (fruits including nuts, vegetables including potato, tuber crops, mushroom, ornamental plants including cut flowers, spices, plantation crops and medicinal and aromatic plants) has become a key drivers for economic development in many of the countries globally it contributes 30.4 per cent to GDP (Mouloudj et al., 2020). Horticulture can increase employment and income which brings about the ability to purchase food and increase the diet of households thereby ensuring food security. For example, in Ghana during the post-independent economic crises, the government supported Horticulture as a means of meeting the population’s food demand by launching the Operation Feed Yourself, programme in which the urban population were encouraged to practice aquaculture, plant everywhere and anywhere in the cities. There were 800–1000 farmers in Accra (Ashiaman-Tema area) with 60% of them producing exotic vegetables while the remaining 40% produced indigenous vegetables. They produced exotic crops such as lettuce, cabbage, cauliflower, spring onions and indigenous crops such as okra, Corchorus spp., aubergine, hot pepper and tomato. These crops were grown within the city on plot size ranging between 0.01–0.02 ha per farmer and through this the government was able to produce many jobs for the unemployed.

Though Uganda over 70% of Uganda’s population is involved in agricultural related activities including Horticulture in Uganda’s rural urban centers the Horticulture farmers possess a relatively low income levels a factor that does not make them Build a sustainable income Base that can enable them survive during a pandemic or a crisis (Egbebiyi et al., 2019). Smallholder farmers in Uganda still produce in agricultural systems characterized by low input and low outputs (DAFF, 2012). The rapid and extensive spread of coronavirus in unprecedented ways is already exacerbating the food systems efficiencies. FAO (2020). Depending on the level of strictness, the measures have caused uncertainty in food production, distribution, and consumption, with concerns over its implications on the already dire food security problems in Uganda (Jianyong, & Singh, 2019). These restrictions of travel and closure of businesses, affected transportation and the entire supply chain of Horticulture products most of the disrupted clients of Horticulture include the closure of restaurants, closure of Tourism activities, all these has reduced the ready customers for the farmers and the fact that the Horticulture products are perishable most of the farmers have hard to bear with the loses in such circumstance the livelihood of the farmers is greatly affected (Irandu et al., 2019).

According to (Ministry of Finance, 2020), Over 1.7 million rural residents who are mainly farmers in Uganda are predicted to have fallen back into poverty in 2020. The falling of back into poverty by the Framers is mainly due to the different risks that the agriculture sector faces and such risks are complex and the government may find it hard to deal with.

1.1.2 Theoretical background

In attempt to explain how the vulnerability of small holder urban horticultural farmers to the COVID- 19 pandemic, the study has used the frame work designed by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) sustainable livelihoods framework

KEY

The framework stresses first that even poor people have assets (and development interventions should work from people’s strengths, their as sets, rather than promote dependency by emphasizing their weaknesses and problems), and second that people have many different kinds of asset (or capital) and of livelihood strategy and income. The frame work indicates that Vulnerability to famine is therefore a function of people’s ability physically to access food and of their ability to exchange the assets at their disposal for food. Swift (1993) identified the following range of assets which may be important in determining people’s ability to obtain food.

Investments in; land, labour, and equipment for production, education in learning new techniques or skills and social and farming networks and market and product research. Use of stores; directly of food and financial or of value to buy food. Claims on; other households, for food, production resources or labour,  patrons and village chiefs for help in need, the government and the international community.

As in the DFID framework the ability of people to access food therefore depends on their assets. Assets act as a buffer between production, exchange and consumption and in relation to this study the assets of the small holder farmers is their produce in the gardens sometimes they donot own the land and therefore if there are shocks like COVID-19 Pandemic their livelihood is completely devastated and this therefore brings poverty.

The main shocks which has affected the small holder farmers in Mbale industrial divisions has been the COVID-19 pandemic , which has led to the closure of the markets , restaurants and bars and yet all these are the main clients for the Small holder horticulture farmers.

In relation to the frame work assets are built up in times of surplus and can be converted into food or production inputs in times of need. Peasants, and, more generally, poor people tend to have fewer assets than other groups and may be constrained in the utilization of those assets they do possess due to their partial integration in (imperfect) markets and society. Different assets have different roles in production, exchange and entitlements.

1.1.3 Conceptual background

Market risk refers to uncertainties associated with prices of inputs and outputs. It also includes any other uncertainties from the markets such as the conditions imposed by the contractors.

Financial risk is associated with the variability of interest rates or of the value of financial assets, and the availability of credit when required.

Institutional risk is increasingly considered as an important source of risk in farming. This includes all types of government actions and regulations that can affect the returns from farming. Changes in policies and laws such as environmental requirements generate institutional risk.

A final group of sources of risks could be considered covering environmental risks, health-related risks and liability risk associated with the legal responsibility of farmers in relation to their production.

In Law No.18 of 2012, it is stated that food is anything that comes from biological sources of the agricultural, plantation, forestry, fishery, livestock, aquatic, and water products that are processed or not processed which are intended as food or drinks for human consumption, including food additives, food raw materials, and other materials used in the preparation, processing and/or manufacturing of food or beverages (Government of Indonesia, 2012).

Horticulture is the art of cultivating plants in gardens to produce food and medicinal ingredients, or for comfort and ornamental purposes. Horticulturists are agriculturalists who grow flowers, fruits and nuts, vegetables and herbs, as well as ornamental trees and lawns. Horticulture is divided into several categories which focus on the cultivation and processing of different types of plants and food items for specific purposes. In order to conserve the science of horticulture, multiple organizations worldwide educate, encourage, and promote the advancement of horticulture (Irandu et al., 2019).

Horticulture is divided into the cultivation of plants for food (pomology) and plants for ornament (floriculture). Pomology deals with fruit and nut crops. Olericulture deals with herbaceous plants for the kitchen, including, for example, carrot, cauliflower, tomatoes and peas (Donn-Arnold, 2019).

1.1.4 Contextual background

The COVID-19 Pandemic has affected Uganda in many ways however in terms of human deaths there has been an estimated 2783 cases and this therefore has affected Uganda’s healthy system and stretched it to beyond its capacity.

COVID-19 has also affected Uganda’s economy in a very negative way since most of Ugandans have lost their jobs and the closure of Uganda’s economy has been at the detriment of poor people who have lost their livelihood.

1.2 Statement of the problem

The Ugandan economy is emerging from the devastating impact of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) health pandemic, but prospects for growth are undermined by increasing pressure on its natural resources, according to the latest World Bank economic analysis for the country. The 17th Uganda Economic Update (UEU), From Crisis to Green Resilient Growth: Investing in Sustainable Land Management and Climate-Smart Agriculture, says that the COVID-19 shock caused a sharp contraction of the economy to its slowest pace in three decades, Household incomes fell when firms closed and jobs were lost, particularly in the urban informal sector. The country’s Gross Domestic Product contracted by 1.1 percent in 2020, and is estimated to have recovered to 3.3 percent during the 2021 fiscal year. One of the most affected sector id the Horticulture sector. The closure of schools, Hotels, Restaurants, Tourist has had one of the biggest effects on the Horticulture sector, despite previous researchers concentrating on different sectors of Uganda’s economy no research has been specifically carried out on analysis on the vulnerability of small holder urban horticultural farmers. It is against this Background that this study intends to investigate into analysis on the vulnerability of small holder urban horticultural farmers to the COVID- 19 pandemic in industrial division-Mbale.

1.3 Purpose of the study

The study purpose is to analyze on the vulnerability of small holder urban horticultural farmers to the COVID- 19 pandemic in industrial division-Mbale.

1.4 Objectives of the study

1. To determine food shed of mbale city
2. The influence of market and transport related risks on the vulnerability of small holder farmers in Mbale city.

• Risk Management strategies employed by small holder farmers

1.5 Research Questions

1. To determine food shed of mbale city
2. What is the influence of market and transport related risks on the vulnerability of small holder farmers in Mbale city.

• What Risk Management strategies are employed by small holder farmers?

1.6 Study scope

This section included the content, geographical, time scope.

1.6.1 Content Scope

The contents of the study will include; food shed of Mbale city market and transport related risks on the vulnerability of small holder farmers and the Risk Management strategies employed by small holder farmers.

1.6.2 Geographical scope

The study will be conducted in Mbale city region. It will focus on all the twelve (12) parishes of Mbale (Namatala, Masaba, Southern central, Malukhu, Koma, I.U.I.U, Nabuyonga, Boma, Busamaga, Mooni, Northern Central and Namakwekwe.). The contents of the study will include; economic trends on small holder horticultural farmers, environmental trends on small holder horticultural farmers and influence of COVID- 19 pandemic on the vulnerability of small holder horticultural farmers in Mbale City.

1.6.3 Time Scope

The period of study to carry out research will be From June to Dec 2021.

1.7 Significance of the study

1. The study will provide information on the influence of Economic trends on small holder Horticulture farmers to the government
2. The future scholars will also be able to have information regarding the influence of Environmental trends on small holder Horticulture farmers.

• The study will also provide guide to the policy makers on design appropriate policies that can enable the improvement of livelihoods of Horticulture farmers.

1.8 Conceptual frame work

Vulnerability (IV)                                           Small holder farmers Livelihood outcomes (DV)

Livelihood Assets (MV)

MV

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.0 Introduction

This section of the study presents the discussion on analysis on the vulnerability of small holder urban horticultural farmers to agricultural risks, the study will specifically cover the specific objectives of; to determine food shed of mbale city, the influence of market and transport related risks on the vulnerability of small holder farmers and Risk Management strategies employed by small holder farmers.

2.1Food shed analysis

Foodshed Analysis is a tool used by researchers to measure the feasibility of providing more local food to a community. That there are benefits provided by eating locally produced food is a central assumption of Foodshed Analysis research. But local food, and the attempt to measure its ability to feed a local population, is complex. A closer look reveals that the assumed economic, environmental, and societal benefits of eating locally produced food have been oversimplified in the popular discourse. The broad universal claim that “local food is best” masks a complex and diverse production system in which local and global are not discrete and the environmental, economic, and social value of products lies in the intentions and actions of the food system participants. Foodshed Analysis may be a helpful tool that can be used to advise food system reform and benefit communities. But, in order for this tool to be effective, communities and researchers must move beyond over-valuing proximity and embrace the complicated nature of food systems.

Foodshed Analysis is a new field, and as such, researchers have not yet reached consensus on the goals, methods, and variables of their studies. At this stage, Foodshed Analysis researchers have an opportunity to discuss how Foodshed Analysis can be most effective. The field would benefit if researchers established thoughtful methods for addressing the problems of scale, boundaries, and variables that currently confound their studies.  If these issues are addressed, and the researchers respect and acknowledge the complexity of food systems, Foodshed Analysis can provide a comprehensive approach to analyzing, and perhaps improving, regional food systems.

Once a community has decided that localizing its food system can provide a number of benefits, the next logical question is often whether or not it is possible to feed the population from locally-sourced food. A growing number of researchers have turned to Foodshed Analysis in order to evaluate the answer to this question and thereby inform the conversation surrounding local food. Foodshed Analyses are studies which attempt to scientifically measure the current or potential agricultural ability of a region to provide enough food to feed the local population.

Foodshed Analysis has been used to capture the feasibility that a local region would be able to provide enough agricultural products to feed its population. Kloppenburg, Hendrickson, and Stevenson introduced the concept of Foodshed Analysis, proposing that it should seek to answer the questions “where is our food coming from and how is it getting to us?” (1996, 40). They describe foodsheds as “streams of foodstuffs running into a particular locality, their flow mediated by the features of both natural and social geography” and they believe that Foodshed

Analysis should be responsible for “measuring the flow and direction of these tributaries and documenting the many quantitative and qualitative transformations that food undergoes as it moves through time and space toward consumption” (40). This description is highly metaphorical and leaves the technical aspects of how exactly to measure the flow and direction of food through space up to future researchers. Modern Foodshed Analysis researchers are currently in the process of defining the scale, boundaries, and methods that make up Foodshed Analysis. Peters et al. are at the forefront of scholars conducting Foodshed Analysis studies today (2008a. They define Foodshed Analysis, similarly to Kloppenburg, Hendrickson, and Stevenson, as the “study of the actual or potential sources of food for a population, particularly those factors influencing the movement of food from its origin as agricultural commodities on a farm to its destination as food wherever it is consumed” (2008). They expand the definition beyond Kloppenburg, Hendrickson, and Stevenson however, by advocating for Foodshed

Analysis as a way to evaluate “how the geography of the food system influences its impact on the environment and the vulnerability of populations to disruptions in their food supplies” (2008a, 5). And they go on even further to suggest that Foodshed Analysis would be helpful for planners when determining how food systems should change in order to enhance sustainability.

Agricultural practices through history Horticulture has been a source of employment to the local population of many countries just like many agricultural practices Horticulture provides more than 40% of the informal sector jobs in the emerging countries, in Africa Low levels of poverty due to failure of growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita has been oSbserved in sub-Saharan Africa where the average real per capita income in year 2010 was 688 USD as compared to 1717 USD in other developing countries of the world (Williams et al., 2019). Agriculture is a major contributor to GDP in Africa (up to 32%).

Nevertheless, the sector is characterized by low productivity. It is important to increase agricultural productivity in Africa to ensure poverty reduction. In addition to poverty, inhabitants of most cities in sub-Saharan Africa are experiencing micronutrient deficiencies (Horn, 2019), For instance, over 200 million and 1.6 billion suffer from Vitamin A and iron deficiencies respectively. In the same vein, it is expected that the populations in urban cities across sub-Sahara Africa will increase rapidly due to rural–urban migration and natural population increase. A projection of 20.2% increase is expected by 2050 which will place more burdens on the currently available food, fruits and vegetables in cities across the region and therefore it is inevitable to involve Horticulture, Other challenges posed by the rapid growth in these urban areas include food insecurity and unemployment. Urban agriculture/horticulture is a veritable solution to these identified problems in the urban areas of sub-Sahara Africa (Canavan et al., 2019).

Many people believe that buying local food provides economic benefits. According to a report by the USDA, expanding local food systems in a community can increase employment and income in that community (Martinez et al. 2010, 42). Increasing local employment is very important to a local community, especially in economically trying times. More employment in the production of local food is good for the community in which the food is produced. In addition to providing jobs, direct sales of food within a community between growers and the consumers mean most of the revenue generated is retained within that community (O’Hara 2011, 17). It seems counterintuitive to import food and export dollars in order to feed a community if that community has the ability to produce its own food. The benefit of keeping dollars within the local community is, to many people, the most important benefit of the local food movement.

In addition to beliefs about economic and environmental benefits, there is also a popular belief that if consumers are closer in proximity to the people who grow and process their food, they will be more socially accountable. And therefore, eating locally is better for society.

Examples of this belief are seen in the food system localization literature of the 1990s. Gail Feenstra champions a locally based food system as a way to “revitalize a community” and claims that because local food systems are rooted in particular places, they “enhance social equity and democracy for all members of the community” (1997, 28). Kloppenburg, Hendrickson, and Stevenson state that a localized food system is “one vehicle through which we reassemble our fragmented identities, reestablish community, and become native not only to a place but to each other” (1996, 34). And Brian Halweil says that “long-distance food erodes the pleasures of faceto-face interactions around food” (2002, 5-6). These statements highlight a belief that by buying and eating locally-grown food people are choosing to engage with other members of their community and therefore they become accountable to one another in a way that cannot be achieved in a global food system.

2.2 The influence of market and transport related risks on the vulnerability of small holder farmers

Vulnerability is a multidimensional concept (Thorntorn, 2016) which varies across temporal and spatial scales and depends on economic, social, geographic, demographic, cultural, institutional, governance, and environmental factors. As it needs to be considered across various dimensions, measuring vulnerability is complex (Gitz and mey beck, 2019).

There are different definitions of vulnerability to climate change (Reed et al., 2013) Thorntorn et al., 2006) whilst there is little consensus about its precise meaning (Fellmann, 2012) Despite the various definitions of vulnerability, most comprehensive and accepted is the definition by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. Thus vulnerability of any system is frequently considered as a function of three elements: exposure to a hazard, sensitivity to that hazard, and the capacity of the system to cope with and adapt or recover from the effects of those conditions (Reed et al., 2013).

Exposure is the level and extent to which a system is exposed to major climate change (parry, 2007) and sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range, or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise) (IPPCC, 2000)). Additionally, adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate variability and change and includes adjustments in both behavior and in resources and technologies. The most widely used approach to the assessment of climate change vulnerability is based on the definition proposed by the IPCC. In this regard Smit and Wandel (2006) believed that despite numerous interpretations, the literature consistently considers vulnerability to be a function of three elements: exposure, sensitivity, and the adaptive capacity.

Vulnerability is a multidimensional concept (Thorntorn et al., 2006) which varies across temporal and spatial scales and depends on economic, social, geographic, demographic, cultural, institutional, governance, and environmental factors. As it needs to be considered across various dimensions, measuring vulnerability is complex Gitz and Meybeck, 2012). There are different definitions of vulnerability to climate change whilst there is little consensus about its precise meaning (Reed et al., 2013). Despite the various definitions of vulnerability, most comprehensive and accepted is the definition by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.” Thus vulnerability of any system is frequently considered as a function of three elements: exposure to a hazard, sensitivity to that hazard, and the capacity of the system to cope with and adapt or recover from the effects of those conditions (Reed et al., 2013).

Exposure is the level and extent to which a system is exposed to major climate change (Parry, 2007); and sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range, or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise). Additionally, adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate variability and change and includes adjustments in both behavior and in resources and technologies. The most widely used approach to the assessment of climate change vulnerability is based on the definition proposed by the IPCC. In this regard Smit and Wandel (2006) believed that despite numerous interpretations, the literature consistently considers vulnerability to be a function of three elements: exposure, sensitivity, and the adaptive capacity. This definition has been generally accepted by the academic community (Tao et al., 2011)

2.3 Risk Management strategies employed by small holder farmers

Household food security is a framework defined by four fundamental dimensions, namely: availability, accessibility, stability, and utility. These four dimensions have been used to describe the measure of food intake per household per day in each country and have been linked to healthy/diseased state. The occurrence of disease or good health is a measure of the adequacy of food nutrients consumed. High levels of animal protein deficit have been reported in Nigeria, however, livestock production rapidly bridges this deficit. This is due to the limited period of growth and regeneration, as well as the presence of large protein portions. More often, livestock bred at the household level play a crucial role in alleviating poverty, enhancing income generation, and assuring food security.

The COVID-19 pandemic has however resulted in a reduction of livestock production both in small and large scales. This event primarily stems from the reduced money in circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic, and reduced earning among many individuals. Thus, the purchase of livestock feeds and drugs seemed unrealistic. For this cause, household savings in the pre-COVID-19 period in Nigeria was expended on basic food items which could assure of survival. For many households, although food items were available at the market, nutrient-rich foods including vegetables were not accessible, and thus could not be utilized for body growth and development. The non-availability of social safety net to cater for stable food supply to the members of the Nigerian population heightened the inadequate food supply during the COVID-19 pandemic. Anecdotal reports from some communities in Nigeria reported an increased proportion of malnourished children and adults during this period; a factor that could increase their vulnerability to SARS-CoV-2.

Despite the implemented PHSM, keeping domestic and international trades open are crucial to ensuring the delivery of food items to places where they are needed. Measures such as the issuance of a valid COVID-19-negative test result to conveyers of perishable food items from the originating state or country only should be implemented and enforced. The food sector is critical; therefore, COVID-19 tests should be rapidly conducted among food producers. Adequate management such as home-based care should commence for positive COVID-19 cases. Online purchase and home food delivery system should be engaged in to reduce the need for movement in search of food during lockdown. The COVID-19 vaccine distribution process is ongoing; however, workers in the food industry should be prioritized on the vaccination list to ensure that the food chain is not disrupted amid the COVID-19 pandemic. To achieve this, public-private partnership is key . For food production and processing companies, all-time availability of face masks should be ensured, and social distancing should be practiced as often as possible. To ensure compliance to the afore-mentioned measures, adequate engagement of the Organized Labor groups should be prioritized.

The establishment of social safety net is mandatory to ensure that food insecurity does not result to an increased proportion of lives lost while PHSM are implemented amid the COVID-19 pandemic. To this effect, social protection such as the regular distribution of palliatives and cash transfers during outbreaks of infectious diseases should be integrated into the Nigerian legal framework. Responsible and competent personnel should be appointed to oversee these tasks. The National Bureau of Statistics should be kept up to date on its records to ensure that the estimated population for the social protection scheme is accurate. Many equipment such as silos and barns that are used for storing farm produce are in a poor state in many states in Nigeria. To salvage the impending agricultural loss and wastage during the COVID-19 pandemic, a repair and/or replacement of these storage equipment is pertinent.

Born and Purcell (2006) emphasize that people must not let localization become the goal, but rather that they should use it as the path to achieving our goals. They say that the local food movement “treats localization as an end in itself rather than as a means to an end, such as justice, sustainability, and so on. Planners, therefore, can become sidetracked pursuing localization and become distracted from pursuing their real goal, whatever that might be.” (2006, 197). This appears to be the case with Foodshed Analysis.  People who want to improve regional food systems should be aware not only of the fact that they want to “eat local,” but also keep sight of why they are choosing to do so. Feagan advises that food system localization “must be wary of xenophobic, place ‘purity,’ and anti-democratic orientations, while also developing spatial delimitations which mitigate against and confront the larger structural issues which gave rise to such resistance and counterpressure in the first place” (2007, 39). This statement encourages local food advocates not to give up on food system localization, but to make a conscious effort to work toward the ideals that motivate localization rather than assuming that the ideals are inherent to localization. Researchers interested in food system reform can carry this responsibility by acknowledging the complexity of the issues in food production and distribution, rather than falling back on designing hypothetical food systems based solely around proximity.

Local food advocates should also be cautious that they don’t let a fixation on the actions of individuals distract them from making effective change to the food system. Laura DeLind argues that “the concept of locavore privileges the individual” (2010, 4). By this she means that the locavore movement places too much emphasis on the actions of the individual and does not put the responsibility for food system problems where it belongs. She says that the movement “suggests that what is wrong with the world (from monoculture practices, to obesity, to global warming) can be addressed through altered personal behavior” and that “ultimately, such rhetoric does more to comfort and accommodate the individual eater … than it does to challenge inequity and existing power structures (2010).

It is also important to acknowledge that the local cannot exist without the global. Hinrichs (2003) stressed that global and local cannot be treated as discrete from one another. Instead she proposed a “diversity-receptive localization” which “recognizes variation and difference both within and outside of the spatial local” and “sees the local embedded within a larger national or world community” (37). In reality, it is impossible to separate local from global. Doreen Massey argues that a “local” place can be unique and still connected to the global “constellation of social relations” (1994, 154). She says that places are not introverted, but are influenced from the outside and that to understand a place we must understand its wider geographical context (155). Hinrichs agrees with this sentiment when she insists that local and global are not discrete but rather that “what is ‘global’ and what is ‘local’, as well as the processes of globalizing and localizing, are fundamentally related within an overall system.

CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY

3.0 Introduction

This chapter provides justifications of the methodology that will be used for the study. The research design and analytical path of any research project should have a specific methodological direction based on its research objectives and framework. Provided is therefore a scientific process that will be followed to qualify the generalization of findings on the analysis on the vulnerability of small holder urban horticultural farmers to agricultural risks in industrial division-Mbale. They include the research design, study population area, sample size, sampling techniques and procedure, data collection methods, data collection instruments, validity and reliability, data quality control, data analysis, data measurements, ethical considerations and limitations of the study.

3.1 Research Design

According to Fisher (2007), a research design is defined as a detailed outline of how an investigation takes place. The study will adopt a descriptive survey design which will provide descriptions of the variables to answer the research questions. This study will use two approaches; the qualitative and quantitative research design.  Kothari (2004) notes that quantitative design is based on measurement of quantity hence this will be used in calculating simple percentages and the number of respondents. Bryman et al., (2003) reiterates that quantitative design also allows comparisons between respondents, giving the right perspective on the variables under study. The choice of this technique is also guided by the fact that the study aims at generating findings, which would facilitate a general understanding and interpretation of the problem. The quantitative data will be triangulated with Focus Group Discussions and Key Informant Interviews to provide explanatory information to the statistical data.

3.2 Study population and Area

The study will focus Analysis on the vulnerability of small holder urban horticultural farmers to agricultural risks in industrial division-mbale. Trochim (2006) defines a study population as the group in which a researcher wants to pick a sample from in order to make generalizations.

3.3 Sampling techniques

This study will employ both probability and non-probability sampling techniques. Probability sampling techniques will include simple and stratified random sampling which will be used to Select small holder farmers in Mbale Industrial division. This will ensure that there is representativeness. Besides, it will  provide an equal chance to all of being selected. Non-probability sampling techniques will include purposive; namely key informants to ensure people with particular information about the subject under study are selected. Snow ball sampling will be used to reach respondents through referrals and enable the researcher interview respondents who can provide data on the topic under study.

3.4 Determination of the sample size

In this study, the researcher will use a sample of 217 respondents to be representative of the population and this will be determined by using the Krejcie and Morgan (1970) Table of Determining Sample Size. The sample size will be 217 out 500 members of Small holder farmers In Mbale. Sekaran (2003) contends that a sample size item larger than 30 and less than 500 is appropriate for most studies.

3.5.0 Data sources and collection instrument

Majorly, two types of data sources – primary and secondary will be used for this study

3.5.1 Data sources, Collection Procedure and Instruments

Two types of data namely primary and secondary data will be used to collect data using different methods. Primary data will be collected using questionnaires and direct interviews. The study will adopt a mixture of qualitative and quantitative methods to obtain data on the topic under study. Qualitative data will be collected using Focus Group Discussions (FDGs) and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs). FDG guides and KII guides will be used to collect data on feelings, beliefs and attitudes regarding the subject under study.  Quantitative methods will be used to generate quantifiable data, using a questionnaire, which will be the main instrument used because of its convenience and efficiency in data collection. The different tools and data sources will be used to make triangulation feasible (Amin 2005).  The primary data will be collected using questionnaires administered to individual women, FDGs and Key Informant Interviews.

3.5.2 Secondary data sources

Secondary sources of data that will be reviewed include scholarly books, magazines, dissertations journals and articles. This source is useful in collecting data from already written literature for example e-books, journals, published articles and periodicals as part of literature review. Documentary resources will be classified in order to facilitate the data collection and textual analysis (Mubazi, 2008).

3.6 Data Collection Methods and Instruments

The study will adopt a mixture of qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitative data will be collected using interview guides for FDGs and KIIs. The use of interview guides to enable data collection on feelings, beliefs and attitudes regarding the subject under study. While quantitative data will be collected using a questionnaire.

3.7.1 Questionnaire

Ahuja (2009) defines a questionnaire as a structured set of questions that are given to people in order to collect facts or opinions about something. The researcher will use closed-ended questions because they are easy and quick to answer, and they are helpful in improving consistence of the responses.

3.7.2 Interviews

According to Ahuja (2009), an interview is a two-person conversation initiated by the interviewer for the specific purpose of obtaining research-related information. It focuses on the content specified by the research objectives, description and explanation. An interview guide, which is referred to as a set of questions for which answers, will be used by a researcher to interview respondents. The use of this tool gives the researcher control over the line of questioning hence time saving.   Interviews will be conducted in a quiet place without noise. The purpose of the interview explained, including reassuring respondents of confidentiality of the information provided. The format of the interview will be informal conversation where questions are asked, and answers recorded by the interviewer.

3.8 Data collection procedure

The researcher will obtain a recommendation and an introductory letter from Makerere University, after which she will seek permission from the different respondents in Mbale city

3.9 Data Quality Control of the Instrument

3.9.1 Reliability of the questionnaire

According Bruton (2000), reliability is established by testing the instruments for the reliability of values (Cronbatch, 1946) and analysis for Alpha values for each variable under study. Sekaran (2001), notes that Alpha values for each variable under study should not be less than 0.6 for the statements in the instruments to be deemed reliable. To ensure that all variables are subjected to this test, the researcher will use the internal consistency method that provides a unique estimate of reliability for the given test administrations. The most popular internal consistency reliability estimate has been given by Cronbach’s Alpha.

3.9.2 Validity of the questionnaire

After developing the questionnaire, the researcher will contact the supervisor and three other experts to ensure that the tools to collect the required data is valid. Hence, the researcher will ensure validity of the instruments by using expert judgment method suggested by Gay (1996). Thereafter, research instruments will be refined based on expert advice. The following formula will be used to test the validity index.   CVI= No. of items regarded relevant by judges over  Total No. of items judged.

3.10 Data Collection Procedures

The questionnaire will be structured and pre-tested by the researcher in industrial division-Mbale since it also has an urban setting with similar study characteristics. This will be done after approval by the supervisor. A letter of introduction by the institute will enable the researcher to carry out research.

3.11 Data Processing and Analysis

This section covers methods of data processing and analysis.

3.11.1 Data Processing 

In order to ascertain the accuracy, consistency, uniformity, proper arrangement and completion of the data, the researcher will use the computer for data entry, editing and data coding. The computer will be used because it increases the speed of computation and data processing and handles huge volumes of data, which is not possible manually. It facilitates copying, editing, saving and retrieving the data easier and validation, checking and correction of data.

3.11.2 Data Analysis

Data collected will be checked, coded and edited for completeness and accuracy. Data will be analyzed using the statistical package for social scientists (SPSS) version 21.0 for Windows. It will be analyzed using frequency distribution tables, excel spread sheets and Spearman correlation to determine the degree of relationship between variables. Qualitative data will also be used to analyze descriptive statistics using opinions and attitudes of respondents and developing themes.

3.12 Ethical consideration

Ethical considerations will be taken care of by, first seeking authorization from the Makerere University administration and other relevant authorities. Questionnaires will be structured in such a way that there is no mention of the interviewee’s name which ensures strict confidentiality in data.

Further, responses will be optional and respondents will not be given any inducements to participate in the study. Ethical considerations will be taken care of by the researcher by briefing the respondents on the purpose of the research, their relevance in the research process, and expectations from them as explained by Lloyd Bevan (2009).

Informed consent will be ascertained from informants/respondents. They will be promised confidentiality about the information they provide. The researcher will explain to the respondents the purpose of the study as purely academic and that the information obtained will be treated with utmost confidentiality. If anybody other than the University authority is to have access the information, the researcher would first seek the consent of the respondents.

3.11 Limitations of the Study

The study may have the following limitations:

1. The respondents may fear to answer questionnaire thinking that they might be spying on them.
2. The COVID-19 pandemic is a huge challenge, since most of the residents fear to associate with strangers because of the disease.

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QUESTIONNAIRES

MAKERERE                                   UNIVERSITY

Dear Respondent,

You have been selected to participant in this study. Please kindly spare your time and fill this questionnaire. The aim of the study seeks to analyze on the vulnerability of small holder urban horticultural farmers to agricultural risks in industrial division-mbale. The information provided shall be used for academic purposes only thus total confidentiality is guaranteed for all information provided.

Please indicate by ticking in the provided boxes provided what best represents the category in which you lie.

Section A:       Respondent Details:

1. Names (Optional) ………………………………………… Gender: Male    Female (Circle)

1)Level of Education:

Postgraduate     Bachelor Degree      Diploma                     Certificate None of These

2. Where do you stay in Mbale city

………………………………………………….

………………………………………………..

3. How long have you been farming?
4. Less than on year             b) 2-4 years                   c)   4- 6 years                   d) 7 years and above

4. Is farming the only source of income you have

1) yes                                                                                                                 No)

5. If No what other Business do u do?
6. a) Employed by Government                      d) Business

6) Which specific crops do you farm?

……………………………………………………………….

Section B:  To determine food shed of mbale city?.  Here you are requested to indicate the level at which you agree with the statement.   The keys have been displayed below where:

SA- Strongly Agree, A-Agree, NS- Not Sure, D- Disagree, SD-Strongly Disagree

Section C: The influence of market and transport related risks on the vulnerability of small holder farmers in Mbale city Here you are requested to indicate the level at which you agree with the statement.   The keys have been displayed below where:

SA- Strongly Agree,   A-Agree,       NS- Not Sure,   D- Disagree,     SD-Strongly Disagree

Section D: Risk Management strategies employed by small holder farmers.  Here you are requested to indicate the level at which you agree with the statement.   The keys have been displayed below where:

SA- Strongly Agree, A-Agree, NS- Not Sure, D- Disagree, SD-Strongly Disagree

Thank you for responding