Research methodology

CHAPTER FOUR

PRESENTATION, ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS

4.0 Introduction

This chapter presents the analyses and interpretations of the study findings on the effect of graduate unemployment on societal wellbeing in Adjumani town council. The study was guided by the following objectives: To assess the effect of graduate unemployment on societal wellbeing in Adjumani town council-Adjumani district. To examine the effect of graduate unemployment on economic wellbeing of the society in Adjumani town council-Adjumani district and to ascertain the effect of graduate unemployment on the psychological wellbeing of the society in Adjumani town council-Adjumani district. The chapter presents the findings of the study based on the data collected from the field. The chapter begins by providing a description of the demographic profiles of respondents. It then presents the findings of the data that was analyzed based on the study objectives.

4.1 Response Rate

In this study, out of the 120 unemployed graduates sampled for the study110 (92%) returned valid questionnaires while out of the 24 family members and opinion leaders sampled for the interview, 18 (75%) were interviewed. According to Mugenda and Mugenda (2003), a response rate of 50 per cent is adequate for analysis and reporting while a rate of 60 per cent is good, and a response rate of 70% and over is even better for social research. Based on this statement, the response rate of 92% graduates and 75% for family members and community leaders was considered to be better, representative and satisfactory to draw conclusions for the study.

4.2 Finding on Demographic Profile of Respondents

Table 1: Sex of the respondents

Source: primary data

The table above shows that (90%) of the respondents were male while 10% of the participants were female.

Table 2: Findings on the age category of the respondents

Source: Primary Data

Findings from the study in table 2 above indicates that 95% of the respondents were in the ages of 30-34 years while 85% of them were in the age bracket of 25-29 years.

Table 3:  Number of years respondents have stayed without jobs in Adjumani

Source: Primary Data

Findings from the study in table 3 above indicate that majority 62.5% of the respondents asserted that they have been unemployed for 3 years and above. This result further indicates that there is high level of unemployment and people take long to get jobs. More to that is that 20% had stayed for 1-2 years without a job.

Table 4: Findings on Causal Factors

Source: Primary Data

The result in table 4 above indicates that majority 80% of the respondents assert that corruption was one of the main reasons why they were not employed while 57.5% stated that poverty was one of their main challenges only 7.5% of the respondents stated that they lack skills. Review of the Statistical Abstract, (2017) shows that the north is the most hit by prevalence of biting poverty in the regions of Uganda as shown in the table below.

4.3 Findings on the Graduate Unemployment Status

Table 5: Findings on the Graduate Unemployment Status

Source: Primary Data Source

According to the findings from the table 5 above, majority  63.6% of the respondents agreed, and only 3.6% were not sure. The table further indicates mean value of 4.06 which shows that majority of the respondents agreed that graduates take years to get employment in Adjumani after graduation.

The finding in the study indicates that majority 64.5% of the respondents disagreed with the findings that most graduates are employed in Adjumani district local government, the results further shows that the man value of 1.92 is indicative that majority of the respondents disagreed. This result therefore shows that most of the graduates are not employed.

The result in the study indicates that majority 59%  of the respondents disagreed and 35% strongly disagreed with the statement that most of the graduates are employed in the central government. The mean value of 2.0 indicates that majority of the respondents disagreed with the fact that, most graduates are employed in the central government.

The study result indicates that majority 65% of the respondents disagreed with the fact that graduates in the districts are mostly employed in the community-based organizations. This finding is also in line with the mean value of 1.74.

The response from the table further indicates that majority 62% disagreed that most graduates are employed in private companies this is also further represented by the low mean value of 1.86. This result further indicates that majority of the graduates are unemployed and they are unable to get jobs in the private companies.

The finding in the study shows that 30.9% of the respondents strongly agreed that majority of the Graduates in Adjumani district are self-employed this factor was also further supported by the mean value of 3.35. The table further shows that only 16.4% of the respondents were not sure and the remaining 21.8% of the respondents also agreed.

A number of documents were reviewed to supplement the findings from the questionnaire and interview conducted. Key documents reviewed were, Adjumani district five years development plan-2015/2016-2019/2020, the national population census 2014 area specific profile 2017 and annual crime report 2018 respectively, among others.  The five years development plan has one of its challenges as high youth unemployment with main source of youth livelihood as; casual labour, gambling, betting, conning, unsuspecting victims, boda-boda riding, cart pushing, charcoal burning and brick making. Nevertheless, such sources of youth livelihood are marred with very low return.

Lack of key statistics and data in sectors is yet another challenge. The numbers of graduates among the youths are not specified. This document shows no plan for graduates but a plan for youth livelihood in general with the objective; To empower youth to reduce wide spread unemployment amongst them.  The document indicates that 46 projects prepared were not funded the previous year.

This document also reveals high attrition rate of teachers‟ hence high pupil/teacher ratio. Many such teachers and other personnel leave the district for greener pastures elsewhere. Another eye-catching challenge in the document is that of biting poverty and income inequality the district. This confirms findings in the quantitative data. Review of the National Population and Housing Census, (2014) and Area Specific profile, (2017) shows 8,725 youths in Adjumani were neither employed nor schooling. This accounts for 19.3% of youths out of job.

4.4 To assess the Effect of Public Sector Graduate Unemployment on Social Wellbeing of the Society

Table 6: Findings effect of public sector graduate unemployment on social wellbeing

Source: primary data

The result in the study table 6 above, indicates that majority 78.2% stated that graduate unemployment increases struggle for scarce resources, 19.1% agreed and none of the respondents disagreed or strongly disagreed this result was further supported by the mean value of  4.75 indicating that majority of the respondents stated that graduate unemployment increase struggle for scarce resources.

The response from the table further indicates that majority 83.6% of the respondents strongly agreed that graduate unemployment increases social vices and crimes in society 16.4% also agreed, this is also further supported by the mean value was 4.84 further showing that majority of the respondents agreed with the statemen.

Majority 79% of the respondents strongly agreed that unemployment increases rural urban migration this is also further supported by the mean value of 4.74 indicating that unemployment of the graduates has caused rural urban migration.

The findings from the table further indicates that 80% of the respondents strongly agreed, and 15% agreed with the mean value of 4.75 the result therefore indicates that majority of the respondents agreed that Graduate unemployment breaks social fabrics as the unemployed disassociate due to shame and feeling of helplessness. This finding further shows that majority of the respondents’ state that graduate unemployment breaks social fabrics.

The findings from the table further indicates that majority 49% of the respondents strongly agreed that graduate unemployment is detrimental to relationships while, 43% agreed with the mean value of 4.41. The findings therefore indicate that respondent held the view that graduate unemployment is detrimental to relationships.

Majority 49% of the respondents strongly agreed that graduate unemployment creates negative attitude towards enrollment for higher education while 43% of the agreed this finding further indicates that graduate unemployment leads to negative attitude towards enrollment for higher education.

To triangulate these quantitative data findings from the questionnaires that were administered to the graduate individuals, structured interviews were conducted with selected members of the families of graduates and community leaders (Chiefs and local council chairpersons). The interviews were supportive of the findings summarized in tables 5,6,7 and 8. Content analysis of the recorded interviews revealed that unemployment has negative effect of societal wellbeing of people in Adjumani town council. For instance, when asked what their opinion are about graduate unemployment in Adjumani town council, most respondents were of the view that graduate unemployment has become one of the greatest challenges the town council has been facing for the last half a decade now. An elderly chief lamented,

“On average a parent spends an equivalent of 68 herds of cattle to educate only one child to a graduate level. Such a child upon completion comes and sits idle in the house. He/she expects food, clothing and airtime from the parents again. You never know when this is going to stop or will ever stop in the near future, leave alone how you will recover your 68 herds of cattle. Is this what we call investment?”

Unemployment is found to have adverse effect on the wellbeing of the people in Adjumani town council. Respondents reported misunderstanding in families, land wrangles among family members, increased theft and vandalism, graduates moving from villages to Adjumani town and expressed reservation to send more for higher education when asked how they think unemployment effect social wellbeing of the people in the town council. For instance, the local council chairperson said;

“The issue of land wrangle is there. Children struggle for the little pieces of land. They sell to people who come from outside to get money. They all come to town there is no jobs in the villages. What can they do there?”

Review of the Annual Crime Report, (2018) shows that leading crime in reporting period are; assaults, defilement and domestic violence; threats conning money, trespass malicious property damage theft of cash and cattle burglaries, child neglect and aggravated violent assaults.

Rural areas have the biggest percentage of 47.8% criminal offences in year 2081 while urban areas had 47.7% and 4.5% were highway bound. The document indicates in every 100,000 people, 612 0.162% were victims of crime in Uganda in 2018. Districts of highest crime remain Arua, Gulu, Katwe, Mbale, Mbarara Mpiggi and Ntungamu. Narcotics related cases are on the rise from 2854 to 2,890 were registered in 2017 and 2018 respectively. Robbery increased from 6,850 in 2017 to 7354 cases in 2018. Domestic violence came down from 15,325 2017 to13,916 cases in 2018. On the other hand, breakings increased 0.97% from 13,883 2017 to14,018 in 2018 while thefts came down from 66539 in 2017 to 61533 cases in 2018, a 7.5 decrease.

4.5 To examine the Effect of Private Sector Graduate Unemployment on Economic Wellbeing of the Society

Table 7: Findings on effect of graduate unemployment on economic-well being

Source: primary data

The study result in table 7 above indicates that 65% of the respondents strongly agreed, 27% agreed and only 2.7% of the respondents disagreed none of the respondent strongly disagreed that graduate unemployment causes and increases brain drain that results to low productivity in the district and eventually the country at large.

The finding of the study further indicates that the majority 89% of the respondents strongly agreed, 17% agreed in addition to the mean value of 4.79 shows that graduate unemployment reduces individual’s purchasing power and choices. This view was strongly agreed upon by majority of the respondents.

The table indicates that majority 63% of the respondents were not sure with the statement that graduate unemployment brings about a fall in national output. This factor was further illustrated by the fact that the mean value was 3.43 indicating that most of the respondents were not sure whether graduate unemployment brings about a fall in national out put of the country.

The study results show that 71% of the respondents stated that Graduate unemployment brings about a dependency this is also further supported by the mean value of 4.69. indicating that graduate unemployment results into high dependency.

The study finding indicates that majority 46% of the respondents strongly agreed, while 26% agreed. The findings further show that the mean value of 4.17 indicating that Graduate unemployment brings about fall in standard of living in society.

The results in the study indicates that majority of the respondents 70% of the respondents stated that Graduate unemployment increases government financial expenditure on social services, 15% agreed and the mean value of 4.54 further indicates that majority of the respondents agreed.

When asked how graduate unemployment affect the economic wellbeing of the people in Adjumani town council, respondents reported, a lot of graduates crossing into South Sudan. It increased biting poverty that limits people’s ability to afford basic needs in families of such graduates, very low involvement of graduates in productive activities, living under grass thatched houses and affording not more than a meal a day and reliance on government provided health and educational services among others. The local council of explains;

“Many educated youths go to South Sudan these days. No jobs here. We spend all our efforts to send children to school but we don’t get back the money, how can we continue doing that? People cannot afford medical services.”

4.6 To Ascertain the Effect of Graduate Unemployment on Psychological Well being

Table 8: Findings on effect of graduate unemployment on psychological well being

Source: Primary Data

According to the result in table 8 above, majority 65% of the respondents strongly agreed, 30% agreed, and the results further indicates that 2% were not sure, that graduate unemployment causes frustration and aggravated violence in the society this is indicated by the mean value of  4.58, this result further indicates that due to high levels of unemployment graduates become frustrated.

Majority 40% of the respondents strongly agreed, 25% agreed, that graduate unemployment leads to mental health problems like low self-confidence, feeling unworthy to depression and helplessness. This is represented by the mean value of  3.78 this finding further shows that most of the respondents who answered the questionnaire held the same view.

The result of the study shows that majority 50% of the respondents were not sure if unemployed graduates have high risks of committing suicide. This is represented by the mean value of 2.95, this finding therefore indicates that respondents were not completely sure if unemployed graduates could be at risk of committing suicide in Adjumani town council.

Table results further indicates that majority 60% of the respondents agreed, 17% strongly agreed, that graduate unemployment increases tensions in families. The above findings therefore indicate that when the graduates are unemployed the level of tensions in the family increases. This was supported by the mean value of  3.92

Majority 86% of the respondents strongly agreed, 10% Agreed that graduate unemployment increases the rate of drug and substance abuse this is indicated by the mean value of 4.78. The finding further shows that unemployment increases drugs and substance abuse.

According to the findings in the table 8 above the mean value of  3.0  shows that majority of the respondents were not sure if graduate unemployment increases resentment and general mental health deterioration of the graduates , this was further supported by the high percentage of 57% of the respondents not being sure and only 9% agreeing and 8% strongly agreeing with the statement.

Content analysis of recorded opinion leaders shows a lot of effect of graduate unemployment on the psychological wellbeing of the people of Adjumani town council. Outstanding among the effect were; isolated cases of violence in the town resulting from idle youth’s demand for jobs, as they think job opportunities in NGOs are filled mostly by people from central and Acholi sub-region where such organization had been operating before coming to Adjumani district. Depression and feeling of low self-esteem, tensions and domestic violence in families and high rate of ‘mairungi’ and alcohol consumption has been reported. When asked to explain how community and opinion leaders think unemployment affects the psychological wellbeing of the people in Adjumani town council. For example, the sub-county chief said;

“The educated youths are redundant, they eat ‘mairungi’, excessively drink alcohol especially those in sackets and they become violent in homes and public places. They attacked people even onetime killed a policeman.”

4.7 Analyzing Hypothesis

4.7.1 Public Sector Graduate Unemployment has significant effect on social wellbeing of the society in Adjumani town council.

Source: primary data

The results from the table above indicates that Pearson correlation coefficient is -0.113, indicating that there is a negative correlation between social wellbeing and Graduate unemployment status. This finding shows that the more the years the Graduate is unemployed, the poorer their social economic status will be.

This is statistically insignificant since the P-value (0.239)>0.05, thus the null hypothesis is accepted implying that Graduate unemployment does not have significant effect on social economic wellbeing, This findings also further indicates that the more years a graduate is unemployed the poorer the social economic well being will be.

Analysis of the effects of Unemployment status on social well being

The R-square =0.013, this implies that 1.3% of the social well being of a Graduate is explained b y their unemployment status, this is a poor fit therefore it is evident that Graduate unemployment does not have significant effect on social wellbeing.

4.7.2 Private Sector Graduate unemployment has significant effect on the economic wellbeing of the society in Adjumani town council.

Source: primary data

The findings in the table above indicates that the Pearson correlation coefficient 0.077 is a weak positive correlation coefficient. This result shows that Graduate unemployment does not have a significant effect on economic wellbeing. This is also statistically insignificant by the P-value(0.421) indicating that Graduate unemployment does not have a significant effect on economic wellbeing.

Regression analysis on the effect of Graduate unemployment on economic wellbeing

Source: Primary Data

The R-square =0.006 indicating that Graduate unemployment has 0.6% effect on economic wellbeing this result further shows that Graduate unemployment does not have a significant effect on economic wellbeing. This is also further indicated by the -0.003 adjusted R-Square value therefore the more years graduate is unemployed the poor their economic wellbeing will be.

4.7.3 There is significant effect of graduate unemployment on the psychological wellbeing of the society in Adjumani town council

Source: Primary Data

The results from the table above indicates that the Pearson correlation coefficient 0.084 indicates that there is a weak positive correlation coefficient between Graduate Unemployment and  psychological well being in the society. This results also further indicates that there is insignificant effect since the P-Value (0.385)>0.05 indicating that the null hypothesis is rejected and accept the alternative hypothesis.

This study results further shows that Graduate unemployment does not have a positive effect on psychological wellbeing.

Regression Analysis of Graduate Unemployment and psychological well being

The regression analysis R-square is -0.002 indicating that Graduate unemployment has a negative effect of physchological well being of the Graduates this finding therefore shows that more the years the Graduate is unemployed the poorer the psychological well being f the Graduate.