Building Resilient, Trafficking-Free Communities in Uganda’s Border Districts

GEOGRAPHIC FOCUS: Busia, Malaba, Lwakhakha, Tororo, Mbale, Namisindwa, and Namayingo.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of Contents

Background. 1

Importance of the Theory of Change in the Anti-Human Trafficking Project Phase III, The Salvation Army Uganda Territory. 2

Target Population. 3

Geographic Scope. 3

Beneficiaries of The Salvation Army Uganda. 4

Alignment with National Policies, Donor Priorities, or Organizational Strategies. 5

Organizational Strategies. 6

Problem Statement or Context Analysis. 6

LONG TERM GOAL.. 7

Out Comes. 8

OUT PUTS. 9

Outputs (Tangible Deliverables) of the Anti-Human Trafficking Project Phase III, The Salvation Army Uganda Territory. 9

Activities/Interventions of the Anti-Human Trafficking Project Phase III, The Salvation Army Uganda Territory. 10

Inputs/Resources of the Anti-Human Trafficking Project Phase III, The Salvation Army Uganda Territory  11

Causal Pathways/Linkages of the Anti-Human Trafficking Project Phase III, The Salvation Army Uganda Territory. 12

Assumptions of the Anti-Human Trafficking Project Phase III, The Salvation Army Uganda Territory  13

RISKS AND MITIGATION OF THE ANTI-HUMAN TRAFFICKING PROJECT PHASE III, THE SALVATION ARMY UGANDA TERRITORY.. 14

Indicators and Monitoring of the Anti-Human Trafficking Project Phase III, The Salvation Army Uganda Territory. 16

LONG-TERM IMPACT.. 17

OUTCOMES (Short/Medium-Term Changes: Behavior, Skills, Systems) 17

OUTPUTS (Tangible Deliverables from Activities) 17

ACTIVITIES (Key Interventions Across 3 Pillars) 17

INPUTS (Resources & Foundations from Phases I/II) 18

ASSUMPTIONS & RISKS. 18

Logical frame work. 19

Table continuation. 21

Table:  Continuation. 22

Table:  Continuation. 23

Table:  Continuation. 24

Proposed Budget for Phase III of the Anti-Human Trafficking Project 27

Background

The Salvation Army Uganda Territory (TSA-Uganda) has been at the forefront of combating human trafficking and modern slavery through its structured Anti-Human Trafficking (AHT) Project, which has progressed through multiple phases to address the evolving challenges in Uganda’s high-risk border and transit districts. Districts such as Busia, Malaba, Lwakhakha, Tororo, Mbale, Namisindwa, and Namayingo serve as critical migration corridors, where high population mobility, informal cross-border trade, unemployment, and limited access to safe migration information expose women, children, and youth to deceptive recruitment, forced labor, and sexual exploitation. Guided by The Salvation Army’s global Modern Slavery & Human Trafficking Response (MSHTR) strategy, the Fight for Freedom framework, and Uganda’s National Action Plan on Trafficking in Persons, the project integrates prevention, survivor protection, partnerships, advocacy, and evidence-based interventions to tackle both root causes and consequences.

Phases I and II laid a strong foundation by reaching over 200,000 people directly and indirectly through community sensitization, school-based Rights of Children (RoC) Clubs, training of Volunteer Community Champions, engagement of transport-sector actors, faith-integrated messaging, and strategic media campaigns.

Key achievements included the establishment of sustainable community structures, individual action plans for trained champions and school patrons, contributions to the repatriation of over 200 Ugandan survivors from India, and the convening of a Uganda India Cross-Border Symposium to strengthen referral pathways. Survivor-centered Return and Reintegration support for more than 25 individuals, anchored in global R&R Guidelines, highlighted the link between unsafe migration and re-trafficking risk, while community research produced policy briefs that informed national dialogue and shaped Phase III’s strategic direction.

Phase III represents a deliberate consolidation and deepening phase over two years, shifting from broad awareness to practical, skills-based prevention, survivor empowerment, and evidence-driven advocacy across the same geographic scope. Through its three-pillar approach;

1. Prevention; The organization will focus on safe migration education and job verification tools.

1. Survivor Support and Empowerment; the organization will emphasize economic resilience and leadership.

• Research and Advocacy; The organization will generate policy-relevant evidence.

The project builds on existing assets such as RoC clubs, trained champions, Salvation Army Corps networks, and multi-stakeholder partnerships. By embedding interventions within schools, faith institutions, youth groups, sports clubs, and transport networks, TSA-Uganda ensures cost-effective, sustainable impact that positions local communities and survivors as active agents in creating resilient, trafficking-free environments aligned with national and international commitments.

Importance of the Theory of Change in the Anti-Human Trafficking Project Phase III, The Salvation Army Uganda Territory

The Theory of Change (ToC) is a critical strategic tool for Phase III of The Salvation Army Uganda Territory’s Anti-Human Trafficking Project, providing a clear and evidence-based roadmap that links inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes, and long-term impact in reducing human trafficking and modern slavery in high-risk border districts. By explicitly articulating the causal pathways from skills-based prevention and survivor empowerment to resilient communities it ensures that interventions move beyond broad awareness and the focus of Phases I and II to address identified gaps such as unsafe migration decisions, deceptive recruitment, and economic vulnerability, enabling focused resource allocation and measurable progress.

The ToC enhances accountability and adaptive management by defining assumptions like community ownership of action plans and risks like economic pressures driving migration, allowing the project team to monitor progress, adjust strategies based on emerging trends, and demonstrate results to stakeholders, including government partners, donors, and national coordination mechanisms like CATIPU.

It also strengthens sustainability by illustrating how interventions are embedded in existing local structures schools, Rights of Children clubs, Salvation Army Corps, transport networks, and VSLAs ensuring that prevention, referral, and survivor support continue beyond the two-year funding cycle.

Furthermore, the ToC facilitates effective communication and advocacy, clearly showing how community-led, survivor-centered approaches align with Uganda’s National Action Plan on Trafficking in Persons, The Salvation Army’s global MSHTR framework, and broader commitments to safe migration and human dignity. This transparency builds trust with.

Target Population, Geographic Scope, and Beneficiaries of The Salvation Army Uganda Territory’s Anti-Human Trafficking Project (Phase III)

Target Population

The target population for The Salvation Army Uganda Territory’s Anti-Human Trafficking (AHT) Project comprises groups most vulnerable to human trafficking and modern slavery in Uganda’s border regions, identified through community research and survivor case reviews as those facing deceptive recruitment, unsafe migration, forced labor, and sexual exploitation due to poverty, unemployment, low education, and misinformation.

Primary targets include;

1. Children and adolescents (in-school and out-of-school youth for early prevention),
2. Young women and girls aged 18–35 (particularly school dropouts, single parents, and job seekers at highest risk),

• Youth influencers

1. Transport-sector workers (boda-boda riders, taxi operators, truck drivers along transit routes who serve as potential first responders),
2. Community leaders (local council members, traders, women leaders),
3. Faith community members,

• Survivors requiring psychosocial, medical, and reintegration support.

This inclusive approach prioritizes intersecting vulnerabilities while empowering participants as agents of change through peer education, action planning, and leadership roles.

Geographic Scope

The geographic scope is focused on seven high-risk border and transit districts functioning as major migration corridors to Kenya and beyond: Busia, Malaba, Lwakhakha, Tororo, Mbale, Namisindwa, and Namayingo, including surrounding commercial trading centers and identified hotspot communities.

Phase III maintains continuity by deepening interventions in approximately 20–25 existing hotspots from previous phases and expanding school-based activities to five additional public schools in underserved areas within these districts, ensuring concentrated, sustainable impact without broad geographic dilution.

Beneficiaries of The Salvation Army Uganda

Beneficiaries are categorized as direct and indirect to capture both immediate participants and broader ripple effects. Direct beneficiaries, estimated at around 20,000, include trained community champions, Rights of Children (RoC) club members and patrons, youth and sports club participants, transport actors, school learners, faith leaders integrating messaging, and survivors receiving coordinated support; Projected breakdown:

1. 300–400 adult women,
2. 400 adult men,

• 500 girls,

1. 800 boys.

Indirect beneficiaries, reaching approximately 70,000, encompass families, peers, traders, and community members influenced through awareness campaigns, media outreach, referral pathways, and institutionalized prevention structures (estimated: 1,700 women, 2,200 men, 11,000 girls, 20,000 boys).

This layered beneficiary model maximizes reach, fosters community ownership, and promotes long-term resilience against trafficking in these vulnerable regions.

Alignment with National Policies, Donor Priorities, or Organizational Strategies

National Policies

The Anti-Human Trafficking (AHT) Project Phase III of The Salvation Army Uganda Territory (TSA-Uganda) is strategically aligned with key national, international, and organizational frameworks to ensure coherence, relevance, and amplified impact in combating modern slavery and human trafficking. At the national level, the project directly supports Uganda’s National Action Plan on Trafficking in Persons (2019–2024, with ongoing extensions), which emphasizes prevention, protection, prosecution, and partnerships the core pillars mirrored in the project’s design.

It integrates with the Coordination Office for Prevention of Trafficking in Persons under the Ministry of Internal Affairs, strengthening referral pathways, data sharing, and multi-stakeholder coordination, while collaborating with the Ministry of Gender, Labour and Social Development on survivor reintegration, child protection, and gender-responsive interventions.

The project also aligns with Uganda’s Victim Case Management System and the National Child Policy (2020), promoting child-led platforms like Rights of Children (RoC) clubs and safe migration education to address vulnerabilities among youth and single parents.

Donor Priorities

On the international and donor front, the project contributes to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 5 (Gender equality) through empowerment of women and girls, SDG 8 (decent work and economic growth) via job verification tools and livelihood support to reduce forced labor, and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions) by enhancing advocacy, policy briefs, and cross-border collaborations like the Uganda–India Symposium. It adheres to donor priorities such as those of the UK International Territory (funding Phases I–III), emphasizing evidence-based, sustainable interventions, and aligns with the Palermo Protocol (UN Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons) and the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child by prioritizing survivor-centred approaches, ethical migration, and child protection.

Organizational Strategies

Organizationally, Phase III is fully embedded in The Salvation Army’s global Modern Slavery & Human Trafficking Response (MSHTR) strategy and the Fight for Freedom framework, which guide the three-pillar structure;

1. Prevention,
2. Survivor Support

• Research/Advocacy

and the Return & Reintegration (R&R) Guidelines for dignified survivor care. It operationalizes the Territorial MSHTR National Action Plan, mandating every Corps to integrate anti-trafficking efforts into pastoral care, youth ministries, and community outreach, ensuring faith-anchored sustainability.

This multi-level alignment maximizes synergies, leverages existing resources like Corps networks and partnerships with CATIPU, and positions TSA-Uganda as a key player in national and regional anti-trafficking efforts, ultimately advancing equitable, rights-based development in Uganda’s border communities.

Problem Statement or Context Analysis

Human trafficking and modern slavery persist as serious and evolving challenges in Uganda, particularly in border and transit districts where high population mobility, informal cross-border trade, and youth migration create fertile ground for exploitation. The root causes are deeply intertwined with structural vulnerabilities, including widespread poverty, high unemployment (especially among youth aged 18–35), low education levels, and limited access to accurate information on safe migration and employment opportunities. Traffickers exploit these conditions by offering deceptive promises of well-paid jobs, marriage, or education abroad often through family networks, informal recruiters, or social media leading to forced labor, sexual exploitation, domestic servitude, and organ trafficking.

Internal trafficking within Uganda and cross-border movements, primarily through porous routes into Kenya and onward to Middle Eastern countries, India, and Southeast Asia, are predominant, with unsafe migration serving as the primary pathway into exploitation.

Key vulnerabilities are amplified in districts such as Busia, Malaba, Lwakhakha, Tororo, Mbale, Namisindwa, and Namayingo, which function as major exit and entry points characterized by weak border controls, informal crossings, and bustling trading centers. Community-based research conducted by The Salvation Army Uganda Territory reveals that young women and girls aged 18–35, particularly school dropouts, single parents, and those from economically strained households, face the highest risk due to financial pressures, caregiving responsibilities, and social stigma that limit local livelihood options. Children and out-of-school youth are similarly exposed through peer influence, curiosity, and lack of protective safeguards, while transport-sector workers and traders often unwittingly facilitate trafficking by providing unregulated movement along transit routes.

Additional contributing factors include misinformation about overseas employment, weak verification systems for job offers, cultural norms that discourage reporting due to fear of retaliation or stigma, and insufficient community-level early warning mechanisms. The lingering effects of economic disruptions, such as those from the COVID-19 pandemic, have further heightened desperation, pushing individuals toward risky migration without adequate preparation or support. These interconnected root causes and vulnerabilities sustain a cycle of exploitation, underscoring the need for targeted, community-embedded interventions that address both immediate risks and underlying socio-economic drivers to prevent trafficking before it occurs.

LONG TERM GOAL

The long-term goal of Phase III of The Salvation Army Uganda Territory’s Anti-Human Trafficking (AHT) Project is to foster resilient, trafficking-free communities in Uganda’s high-risk border districts; Busia, Malaba, Lwakhakha, Tororo, Mbale, Namisindwa, and Namayingo where vulnerable populations, particularly children, youth, women, and survivors, can migrate safely, access dignified livelihoods, and live free from exploitation, contributing to a sustained national reduction in modern slavery and human trafficking.

This impact envisions a transformative shift beyond the two-year project timeline, whereby community structures like schools, faith institutions, youth groups, sports clubs, transport networks, and VSLAs independently prevent unsafe migration, identify risks early, and support survivors through embedded, self-sustaining mechanisms. By empowering local actors such as trained Volunteer Community Champions, Rights of Children club members, Corps officers, and transport-sector first responders with practical tools like job verification manuals and action plans, the project aims for a measurable decline in trafficking incidence (targeting at least a 20% reduction in reported cases in target districts over 5–10 years) and decreased re-trafficking vulnerability through economic resilience and survivor leadership.

At the systems level, the impact includes strengthened national and cross-border responses, with evidence from project research and policy briefs influencing the full implementation of Uganda’s National Action Plan on Trafficking in Persons, improved referral pathways, and enhanced bilateral cooperation like Kenya and India. Ultimately, this goal aligns with broader aspirations for safer communities where individuals exercise informed choices about migration, survivors reclaim agency as advocates, and multi-stakeholder coordination ensures ongoing protection, reducing the overall prevalence of modern slavery and supporting Uganda’s commitments to SDGs 5, 8, and 16 for equitable, exploitation-free development.

Out Comes

The intermediate outcomes of Phase III represent the short- to medium-term changes in knowledge, behavior, skills, systems, and conditions that serve as critical pre-conditions and stepping stones toward the long-term impact of resilient, trafficking-free communities. These outcomes are designed to be measurable within the two-year project timeframe and sustainable beyond it through institutionalized practices.

Under the Prevention pillar, key outcomes include increased practical knowledge and application of safe migration skills among target populations, with at least 70% of trained participants (youth, school learners, transport actors, and community champions) consistently using job verification tools and identifying deceptive recruitment risks before migration decisions are made. Communities and schools demonstrate changed behaviors, such as routine integration of safe migration education into school safeguarding systems, youth group activities, and transport-sector dialogues, resulting in early identification and referral of at-risk cases through established pathways.

In the Survivor Support and Empowerment pillar, outcomes focus on enhanced recovery and resilience, with 80% of supported survivors achieving economic independence through livelihood pathways or vocational training, reduced re-trafficking vulnerability via structured follow-up, and active participation in peer-support networks or prevention activities as empowered leaders and advocates.

For the Research and Advocacy pillar, intermediate outcomes involve strengthened multi-stakeholder systems, evidenced by improved coordination and adoption of project-generated policy briefs in district/national mechanisms, more effective referral systems aligned with national guidelines, and increased use of community-derived evidence to inform policy implementation and resource allocation.

Collectively, these outcomes create the necessary conditions skilled and proactive communities, empowered survivors, and responsive systems for sustained reductions in trafficking incidence, safer migration practices, and dignified reintegration, paving the way for the ultimate impact of exploitation-free border communities in Uganda.

OUT PUTS

Outputs (Tangible Deliverables) of the Anti-Human Trafficking Project Phase III, The Salvation Army Uganda Territory

The outputs of Phase III represent the direct, tangible deliverables produced through the project’s activities across its three pillars, providing immediate and measurable results that form the foundation for intermediate outcomes and long-term impact.

Under the Prevention pillar, key outputs include the recruitment and training of additional community champions and transport-sector actors targeting 20–30 new first responders with completed action plans, the formation and strengthening of Rights of Children (RoC) clubs in five new public schools ; equipped with training manuals, IEC materials, and monthly activity logs, the contextualization and dissemination of simplified job verification tools adapted from The Salvation Army Europe Zone’s manual (distributed to at least 500 youth and job seekers), and sustained follow-up support for existing structures, 80% of prior champions implementing refreshed action plans. These deliverables ensure practical tools and trained personnel are in place for early risk identification and safe migration guidance.

In the Survivor Support and Empowerment pillar, tangible outputs encompass coordinated psychosocial, medical, and livelihood assistance for 25+ survivors (documented through case management reports and follow-up records), the establishment or strengthening of peer-support networks involving at least 20 survivors, and linkages to vocational training or community-based economic opportunities like VSLAs, resulting in structured reintegration plans and reduced immediate re-trafficking risks.

For the Research and Advocacy pillar, outputs include the production and dissemination of at least two targeted policy briefs based on studies of trafficking trends, border dynamics, and reintegration outcomes (shared with national platforms like the Ministry of Gender and CATIPU), formalized partnerships through 5–10 new or renewed MoUs with schools, government entities, and service providers, and evidence contributions to coordination forums (symposium reports and advocacy submissions).

Additional cross-cutting outputs involve updated directories of service providers, refreshed IEC materials, and media campaigns through radio, TV/digital segments reaching indirect beneficiaries.

These concrete deliverables trainings completed, tools distributed, survivors supported, and evidence generated provide verifiable products that directly enable behavior change, system strengthening, and sustainable community resilience against human trafficking.

Activities/Interventions of the Anti-Human Trafficking Project Phase III, The Salvation Army Uganda Territory

The activities and interventions in Phase III are purposefully designed as key actions to operationalize the three-pillar framework Prevention, Survivor Support and Empowerment, and Research and Advocacy while building on established structures from previous phases for efficiency and sustainability.

Under the Prevention pillar, the project will conduct targeted capacity-building trainings for new and existing actors, including orientation and skills workshops for Volunteer Community Champions, school patrons, teachers, and transport-sector representatives (boda-boda associations, taxi operators, and truck drivers) to equip them with practical tools for early risk identification and safe migration guidance. It will facilitate the formation and strengthening of Rights of Children (RoC) clubs in five additional public schools, providing training materials, monthly follow-up support, and inter-school exchange activities such as debates, sports competitions, and peer-learning events. A major intervention involves reviewing and contextualizing The Salvation Army Europe Zone’s Job Verification Manual for the Ugandan border context, followed by the development and dissemination of simplified, community-friendly job verification and safe recruitment tools through youth groups, schools, and trained champions. Ongoing activities include technical support and refresher trainings for existing AHT groups, RoC clubs, and community champions to ensure consistent implementation of individual action plans.

In the Survivor Support and Empowerment pillar, key interventions focus on coordinated case management, including provision of psychosocial counseling, medical referrals, and livelihood assistance for 25+ survivors, anchored in The Salvation Army’s global Return & Reintegration Guidelines. The project will facilitate peer-support networks and structured follow-up visits to promote recovery and reduce re-trafficking risks, while linking survivors to vocational training, community-based economic opportunities like VSLAs , and prevention/advocacy roles where appropriate, fostering their transition from recovery to leadership.

For the Research and Advocacy pillar, activities encompass collaborative research with institutions and government stakeholders to study trafficking trends, border dynamics, safe migration risks, and reintegration outcomes, culminating in the production and dissemination of policy briefs to national platforms. Advocacy interventions include active participation in district and national coordination mechanisms like CATIPU, hosting or contributing to forums and symposiums, and strengthening referral pathways through updated service provider directories and formalized partnerships via MoUs.

Cross-cutting activities involve media and digital engagement (radio/TV talk shows, social media campaigns), integration of anti-trafficking messaging into Salvation Army Corps programs (pastoral care, youth/women’s ministries), and monitoring through follow-ups, mid-line surveys, and annual audits. These interconnected actions trainings, tool development, survivor support, research, and advocacy ensure comprehensive, community-embedded implementation that directly addresses unsafe migration and exploitation while promoting long-term systemic change.

Inputs/Resources of the Anti-Human Trafficking Project Phase III, The Salvation Army Uganda Territory

The inputs and resources for Phase III leverage a combination of existing assets from previous phases, organizational infrastructure, partnerships, and targeted funding to ensure efficient, sustainable implementation without duplicating efforts. Key human resources include dedicated project staff (Project Manager, coordinators, and field officers), supplemented by The Salvation Army’s extensive local presence through trained Corps officers, chaplains, soldiers, and lay leaders who integrate anti-trafficking activities into routine pastoral care, youth ministries, and community outreach under the Territorial MSHTR National Action Plan. Existing community-based assets such as 20+ Volunteer Community Champions, school patrons from prior RoC clubs, transport-sector representatives, and youth/sports club coordinators provide a ready pool of trained frontline actors requiring only refresher support and technical guidance.

Financial resources are drawn from confirmed funding (e.g., support from the UK International Territory and potential donor contributions), allocated for capacity-building workshops, material development (e.g., contextualized Job Verification Manual and IEC resources), survivor support (psychosocial aid, livelihoods, and referrals), media campaigns, research activities, and operational costs like travel and coordination meetings. Partnerships form a critical input, including formalized collaborations with government entities (Ministry of Gender, Labour and Social Development; Ministry of Internal Affairs), national mechanisms (CATIPU, Victim Case Management System), NGOs (e.g., Willow International), service providers (hospitals, vocational centers), diplomatic missions, and cross-border actors (e.g., Uganda Airlines for repatriation discounts), ensuring coordinated referrals, evidence sharing, and amplified reach.

Material and infrastructural resources encompass Salvation Army facilities (Corps buildings, schools, and community spaces) for trainings and safe gatherings, digital platforms for media engagement, updated directories of service providers, and global tools like the MSHTR Return & Reintegration Guidelines and Europe Zone Job Verification Manual for adaptation. These inputs rooted in proven Phase I/II foundations enable low-cost, high-impact delivery by mobilizing community ownership, faith networks, and multi-stakeholder synergies to drive prevention, survivor empowerment, and systems change in Uganda’s high-risk border districts.

Causal Pathways/Linkages of the Anti-Human Trafficking Project Phase III, The Salvation Army Uganda Territory

The causal pathways of Phase III are structured around an “If… then… because…” logic that links inputs and activities to outputs, outcomes, and the long-term impact through clear, sequential reasoning grounded in evidence from previous phases and community research.

If we utilize established inputs such as trained Volunteer Community Champions, functional Rights of Children (RoC) clubs, Salvation Army Corps networks, partnerships with government and NGOs, and adapted tools like the contextualized Job Verification Manual and implement targeted activities like capacity-building trainings, school club strengthening, survivor case management, livelihood linkages, research studies, and advocacy engagements , then we will produce tangible outputs including 5 new RoC clubs equipped with materials, 20–30 additional trained first responders with action plans, simplified job verification tools disseminated to 500+ youth, coordinated support for 25+ survivors, peer networks established, and 2 policy briefs shared with national platforms, because these activities directly build on proven, low-cost models that mobilize trusted local actors and existing structures for efficient delivery without duplication.

If these outputs are achieved and sustained through follow-up support and institutional embedding, then short- to medium-term outcomes will emerge, such as 70% of trained participants applying safe migration skills and identifying risks early, 80% of supported survivors gaining economic resilience and leadership roles, and strengthened multi-stakeholder referral systems adopting project evidence, because practical tools and skills address the primary driver of trafficking unsafe migration decisions while survivor empowerment reduces re-trafficking vulnerability and community ownership ensures consistent application in everyday settings like schools, transport routes, and faith gatherings.

If these outcomes take root through ongoing action plans, peer education, and policy influence, then the long-term impact of resilient, trafficking-free communities will be realized, with reduced incidence of exploitation, safer migration pathways, empowered survivors contributing to prevention, and sustainable national/cross-border systems, because addressing root causes like deceptive recruitment and economic pressure at the community level combined with systems strengthening creates a protective environment where individuals make informed choices, risks are pre-empted, and exploitation is systematically disrupted, aligning with Uganda’s national commitments and fostering lasting dignity and security in high-risk border districts.

Assumptions of the Anti-Human Trafficking Project Phase III, The Salvation Army Uganda Territory

The Theory of Change for Phase III rests on several key assumptions about how change will occur, reflecting underlying beliefs derived from evidence in previous phases, community engagement, and the project’s context in Uganda’s border districts. These assumptions are critical enablers for the causal pathways from activities to impact.

A primary assumption is that community buy-in and ownership will sustain prevention efforts, as local actors such as Volunteer Community Champions, school patrons, youth leaders, transport-sector workers, and Salvation Army Corps members remain motivated and committed to implementing individual action plans and integrating safe migration messaging into routine community, school, and faith activities. This belief is grounded in the demonstrated accountability from Phases I and II, where trained individuals institutionalized commitments within existing structures.

Another key assumption is that vulnerable populations, particularly youth and job seekers, will adopt and apply practical safe migration skills when provided with accessible, contextualized tools like job verification manuals and education through trusted channels like RoC clubs, sports groups, and peer networks. This assumes that addressing the shift from awareness to actionable behavior change identified as a gap in prior phases will effectively reduce unsafe migration decisions driven by deceptive recruitment.

The project assumes a stable socio-political and economic context in the target border districts, allowing consistent access for trainings, follow-ups, and survivor support without major disruptions from conflicts, border closures, or severe economic shocks. It also presumes ongoing collaboration from government and partners, including sustained engagement in coordination mechanisms and support for referral pathways, repatriation, and policy adoption.

For survivor outcomes, the assumption is that coordinated, survivor-centered support combined with economic resilience measures will reduce re-trafficking risks and enable survivors to transition into leadership roles. Finally, the ToC assumes that evidence generated through research will influence systems change, with policy briefs and advocacy efforts being taken up by national platforms due to TSA-Uganda’s established credibility.

RISKS AND MITIGATION OF THE ANTI-HUMAN TRAFFICKING PROJECT PHASE III, THE SALVATION ARMY UGANDA TERRITORY

Phase III operates in a complex environment of high-risk border districts, where several potential risks could affect implementation, outcomes, and sustainability. These risks have been identified through community engagement, lessons from previous phases, and ongoing contextual analysis, with corresponding mitigation strategies integrated into the project design to ensure resilience and adaptability.

A significant risk is economic pressures and persistent poverty driving continued unsafe migration, as financial desperation may override newly acquired safe migration skills, particularly among youth, single parents, and job seekers. This is mitigated by linking prevention with practical economic resilience measures, such as connecting participants and survivors to livelihood pathways, vocational training, and Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs), while emphasizing job verification tools that enable informed decision-making without restricting legitimate opportunities.

Community resistance or stigma around discussing trafficking due to fear of retaliation from traffickers, mistrust of authorities, or cultural sensitivities poses another barrier, potentially limiting disclosure, reporting, and participation. The project addresses this through trusted, faith-anchored entry points, confidential referral mechanisms, and gradual confidence-building via survivor-centered approaches and peer networks that normalize open dialogue in safe spaces.

Political or security instability in border areas, including potential cross-border tensions, election-related disruptions, or localized conflicts, could restrict access, delay activities, or endanger staff and participants. Mitigation includes flexible scheduling, remote/digital follow-up options where feasible, close coordination with district security committees and government partners for real-time monitoring, and contingency planning for activity relocation to safer Salvation Army facilities.

Partner or stakeholder turnover risks disrupting coordination and referral pathways. This is countered by institutionalizing commitments through MoUs, embedding responsibilities within broader systems like school safeguarding policies, Territorial MSHTR National Action Plan, and conducting regular refresher trainings to onboard new actors seamlessly.

Funding or resource constraints could limit the scale of survivor support, media campaigns, or research activities. The project mitigates this by adopting a low-cost, high-impact model leveraging existing community volunteers and Salvation Army infrastructure, prioritizing cost-effective interventions, and maintaining diversified partnerships for in-kind or complementary support.

Finally, external shocks such as climate-related disruptions or health emergencies are addressed through adaptive programming, multi-channel delivery, and alignment with national disaster response frameworks. Regular risk monitoring through quarterly reviews and stakeholder consultations allows for proactive adjustments, ensuring the project remains responsive and achieves its intended outcomes despite challenges.

Indicators and Monitoring of the Anti-Human Trafficking Project Phase III, The Salvation Army Uganda Territory

The indicators for Phase III provide measurable signs of progress across the logframe hierarchy, enabling systematic tracking of outputs, outcomes, and contributions to impact, while facilitating evidence-based learning and adaptation. These indicators are SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-Bound), linked directly to the three pillars, and draw on quantitative and qualitative data sources for triangulation.

At the output level, key indicators include the number of new Rights of Children (RoC) clubs established and strengthened our Target is 5 clubs with at least 100 active members each , the number of community champions and transport-sector actors trained with completed action plans , Targets 20–30 new actors, 80% of prior champions refreshed , the dissemination reach of contextualized job verification tools, the number of survivors receiving coordinated support target: 25+, with documented case files, and the production/dissemination of policy briefs and media outputs Target is  2 briefs shared with national platforms and 10 above media segments aired . These are monitored through attendance records, distribution logs, training reports, case management files, and media monitoring trackers.

For outcome-level indicators including short- to medium-term changes , measurable signs include the percentage of trained participants demonstrating and applying safe migration skills our Target is 70%, assessed via pre/post-knowledge tests and follow-up surveys on tool usage , the proportion of supported survivors achieving economic resilience and reduced re-trafficking risk our Target is 80%, measured by livelihood enrolment, income tracking, and follow-up assessments, the number of early risk cases identified and referred through community pathways our Target increase from baseline, and evidence of systems adoption like policy brief recommendations incorporated into coordination meetings or national plans. Qualitative indicators capture behaviour change, such as integration of messaging into school/CoPs routines which are verified through observation checklists and survivor participation in advocacy our Target 20 survivors in peer/leadership roles.

Impact-level indicators focus on longer-term signs, such as a reduction in reported unsafe migration or trafficking cases in target districts our target is 20% decrease over 5 years, tracked via national reports and community feedback and sustained functionality of prevention structures post-project target; 80% of clubs/champions active one year after closure.

Evidence collection for monitoring, learning, and adaptation combines quantitative tools like participant databases, surveys, referral logs with qualitative methods like focus group discussions, key informant interviews with champions/survivors, and case studies. Data is gathered through quarterly field visits, monthly action plan reviews, digital reporting from Corps and clubs, mid-line surveys, and an end-of-project evaluation. A dedicated M&E framework includes baseline updates, real-time dashboards for tracking like hotline calls, media reach, and participatory reflection workshops with stakeholders for adaptive management allowing mid-course corrections based on emerging trends, such as shifting trafficking routes or new vulnerabilities. Annual audits and lessons-learned reports ensure transparency, accountability, and knowledge sharing with partners like CATIPU, informing future phases and national strategies. This robust approach turns data into actionable insights, fostering continuous improvement and evidence-based scaling of anti-trafficking efforts.

LONG-TERM IMPACT

Resilient, trafficking-free communities in border districts

1. Reduced exploitation
2. Safe migration

• Empowered survivors

1. Sustainable national systems
2. Alignment with SDGs

OUTCOMES (Short/Medium-Term Changes: Behavior, Skills, Systems)

1. Communities apply safe migration skills & identify risks early (70% trained)
2. Survivors achieve economic resilience & leadership (80% supported)

• Strengthened referral systems & policy adoption of evidence

OUTPUTS (Tangible Deliverables from Activities)

1. 5 new RoC clubs strengthened; 20–30 champions/transport actors trained
2. Job verification tools disseminated to 500+ youth

• 25 and above survivors supported; peer networks established

1. 2 policy briefs produced & shared; media campaigns conducted

ACTIVITIES (Key Interventions Across 3 Pillars)

1. Trainings & action plans for champions, schools, transport sectors
2. Contextualize/disseminate job verification tools

• Survivor psychosocial/livelihood support & peer networks

1. Research studies, policy briefs, advocacy forums & partnerships

INPUTS (Resources & Foundations from Phases I/II)

1. Trained champions, RoC clubs, Corps networks, partnerships (CATIPU, govt)
2. Global tools (MSHTR Guidelines, Job Verification Manual)

• Funding, staff, community assets (VSLAs, sports clubs, faith spaces)

ASSUMPTIONS & RISKS

Assumptions:

1. Community buy-in
2. Partner collaboration

• Stable context

Risks (Mitigated):

1. Economic pressures (livelihood links)
2. Stigma (trusted entry points)

• Instability (flexible planning)

1. Turnover (institutional embedding)

Logical frame work

Logical Framework the Logical Framework below provides a clear, results-oriented blueprint for Phase III of the Anti-Human Trafficking Project. It translates the project’s strategic shift from broad awareness to practical, skills-based prevention, survivor empowerment, and evidence-driven advocacy into a hierarchy of objectives, measurable indicators, verification methods, and risk management strategies. By leveraging existing community assets, faith networks, and national partnerships, this framework ensures cost-effective delivery, strong accountability, and lasting impact, positioning TSA-Uganda to deepen community resilience and contribute meaningfully to Uganda’s fight against human trafficking.

Table below presents the logical frame work

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The Salvation Army Uganda Territory (TSA-Uganda)

The Logical Framework presented above provides a clear, structured, and results-oriented roadmap for Phase III of the Anti-Human Trafficking Project, demonstrating how targeted investments will deliver measurable, sustainable change in Uganda’s high-risk border districts. By linking specific activities such as training community champions, establishing Rights of Children clubs, disseminating practical job verification tools, supporting survivors with psychosocial and livelihood assistance, and producing evidence-based policy briefs to verifiable outputs, meaningful outcomes, and a transformative long-term goal, the logframe ensures every action contributes directly to reducing human trafficking and modern slavery.

This framework reflects a proven, cost-effective model that builds on the strong achievements of Phases I and II, including widespread community engagement, sustainable local structures, and successful survivor repatriation. The SMART indicators, reliable means of verification, and proactive risk mitigation strategies like livelihood linkages, institutional embedding, and flexible partnerships guarantee transparency, accountability, and adaptability throughout implementation. Most importantly, the emphasis on sustainability through full integration of responsibilities into existing schools, Salvation Army Corps, community groups, and national coordination mechanisms ensures that prevention, early warning, referral pathways, and survivor support will continue long after the project ends, creating lasting resilience among vulnerable populations.

Phase III represents a strategic, high-impact opportunity to deepen community ownership, empower survivors as leaders, and strengthen national systems in the fight against trafficking. With a modest yet focused budget, a track record of success, and strong alignment with Uganda’s National Action Plan on Trafficking in Persons and The Salvation Army’s global commitments, this project offers donors an exceptional return on investment: safer migration pathways, empowered individuals, and trafficking-free communities in some of Uganda’s most vulnerable regions.

We respectfully invite your continued partnership through a third round of funding to enable TSA-Uganda to complete this vital work, transforming lives and advancing a future free from modern slavery in Uganda’s border districts. Your support will not only sustain momentum but will help build a legacy of resilience, dignity, and protection for thousands of children, youth, women, and families.

Proposed Budget for Phase III of the Anti-Human Trafficking Project

The Salvation Army Uganda Territory (TSA-Uganda) Project Duration: 2 years.

Period From January 2026 – December 2027

Currency: the currency used for quotation is based on the United States dollars (USD)

This budget is directly derived from the detailed activities and outputs that will be performed by the salvation Amy, to enable it be in position to provide the necessary services to the vulnerable people of the boarder districts in Uganda

The total budget is modest and focused, ensuring high impact and value for donor investment.

BUDGET TABLE

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KEY BUDGET NOTES

1. High Programmatic Focus: 75–78% of the budget is allocated to direct program activities (training, survivor support, materials, research, media), ensuring maximum impact on beneficiaries.
2. Leveraging Existing Assets: In-kind contributions from TSA-Uganda (Corps venues, volunteer champions, faith networks) and community resources (VSLAs, sports clubs) significantly reduce cash needs.

• Year-on-Year Reduction: Year 2 costs drop slightly due to one-time setup (like manual development, initial trainings) and increased local ownership/sustainability.

1. Value for Money: This modest budget (~$200,000/year average) delivers high reach (20,000 direct + 70,000 indirect beneficiaries), strong sustainability, and measurable results making it an excellent investment for continued donor support.