Research consultancy services

CHAPTER FOUR

DICUSSION OF FINDINGS

4.0 INTRODUCTION

4.1 SHOWING TREND OF HIV FROM 2000 TO 2016

From the above figure the level of HIV/AIDS in the country has been declining from 2015, the figure above shows that in 2007 there was lowest HIV levels in the country, however the level of HIV\AIDS levels in 2014 was very high however the level of HIV/AIDS level in the country has began declining from 2015 to 2016.

4.1.2 HISTOGRAM NORMALITY TESTS

A regression was run and on clicking on the view-residual test-histogram-normality test, the histogram is bell-shaped, suggesting a normal curve shape, and the jarque-bera statistics has high p-value of 0.062950 indicating that the errors in the regression are normal that is to say; the probability of 0.969015 is greater than zero and it has a percentage of 93% greater than 10%(93%>10%) thus the errors in the regression are normal.

4.1.2 VARIATIONS IN AIDS PREVALENCE IN RURAL AND URBAN

The residual plot clearly shows that the variance of the error term was not constant hence there is heteroskedasticity.

4.2.1 UNIT ROOT TESTS

Unit root tests were carried out using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic. This was carried out to check whether the series were stationary (integrated) or not. This is because standard inference procedures do not apply to regressions which contain an integrated dependent variable or integrated regressors. The test statistic tested the null hypothesis that the time series has a unit root against the alternative that there is no unit root. The test statistic values are compared to the critical values at five percent significant level. The test statistic values less than the critical values at five percent level of significance indicate that the series are non-stationary otherwise they are stationary.

Table 4: Unit root tests of the series

Note: lag length for the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

In the table 4, the level of total aids prevalence are stationary in the levels and after the first difference since there ADF statistic are greater than the critical values.

4.2.2  Basic exploratory data analysis

This involved establishing the basic descriptive statistics and the correlation matrix. The descriptive statistics of all the variables in logarithms are displayed in table 4.2, while the correlation matrix in table 4.3 demonstrates the relationship between total aids prevalence in Uganda and the prevalence levels in rural and urban.

The Jarque-Bera tests the hypothesis that the series is normal. Since the probability value for TOTAL AIDS, and RURAL, is greater than five percent significant level, the null cannot be rejected meaning the series is normal.

UNIT ROOT TESTS

Hete