RISK ASSESSMENT AND PROJECT PERFORMANCE

A CASE STUDY OF UGANDA ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION COMPANY LIMITED (UEDCL)

INTRODUCTION

1.0 Introduction

This chapter presents the background of the study, the problem statement, purpose, objectives of the study, research questions, study scope, justification of the study, significance, Hypotheses, conceptual framework, as well as operational definition of key terms and concepts.

1.1 Background

The section presents, historical background, theoretical, contextual background, and conceptual background.

1.1.1 Historical background

In the realm of project management, risk assessment is a critical process aimed at identifying, analyzing, and responding to potential risks that could adversely affect project performance. Effective risk management ensures that projects are delivered on time, within budget, and to the desired quality standards. The complexity and volume of projects drastically increased globally in the recent years. Some of the causes that can be attributed to this include globalization, out sourcing, intense competition for existing markets as well as complicated and numerous partnership. Over the last fifty years, many of the world’s largest firms have advanced from being simple manufactures of hard goods, or providers of basic services, to being sophisticated vendors using advanced business models. This means that commitment of customers and suppliers to project performance has increased, thus, the need for sustainable Risk assessment (Krappe and Kallayil, 2021).

Morries and Hugh (2021) imply that the success of a project is dependent on having a realistic goal, completion, client satisfaction, a definite goal, profitability, third party satisfaction, market availability, the implementation process of the project and the perceived value of the project. However, according to Teresa and Ramírez, (2019) project success is measured as the ability to complete the project; according to desired specifications, within the specified budget, within the promised time schedule and while keeping the customer and stakeholders happy. When a project is pronounced as a success, the judgment is usually based on some factual evidence, although not everyone uses the same data (Teresa and Ramírez, 2022). Even if different people use the same data, the same set of evaluation indices is not used in arriving at the degree of success of a project (Meredith and Mantel, 2023).

The project management process is now increasing in importance as contractors and suppliers become virtual extensions of the buying organization. Organizations are increasingly relying on critical services and production contracts as their key to maintaining competitive advantage, the organization’s competence and process capability in contract management is now more important than ever. Some organizations are using process capability maturity models to assess, measure, and improve critical core processes, such as software development and project management. Although, the application of capability maturity models to the contract management process is just beginning to emerge as a best practice (Rendon, 2019).

Projects, by their nature, involve uncertainty, and this uncertainty can manifest as risks. Risks can arise from various sources, including technical challenges, resource constraints, regulatory changes, and external environmental factors. Proper risk assessment allows project managers to anticipate potential problems and implement strategies to mitigate their impact. This proactive approach helps in minimizing disruptions and enhances the likelihood of achieving project objectives. Risk assessment is a vital component of project management that significantly impacts project performance. By employing various risk assessment methodologies, project managers can identify, analyze, and mitigate risks, thereby enhancing the likelihood of project success. Understanding the importance of risk management and its influence on project outcomes is essential for achieving project goals and ensuring stakeholder satisfaction. Future research should focus on developing advanced risk assessment tools and techniques to further improve project performance in an increasingly complex and dynamic project environment (Wolniak, 2022).

Project performances are the basis for all activities in every enterprise and in almost every department of an enterprise. Having no Project means there are no employees, no clients, no IT systems, no material and no partners, However the mere presence of a project is not sufficient. It is the content of a project that determines the future of an enterprise: What will my enterprise have to pay for and how much wills that cost me? How much will we receive or what are our expected deliverables, how will I work together with my partners? Are there any risks or (unknown) opportunities related to the contracts, when will the contract terminate or in which circumstances can it be cancelled and when (Mockler, 2010).

Still, (2015), argues that better project performance is the life blood of the modern business. Without this vital legal glue, entering into arm’s length commercial deals would be fraught with peril yet for medium to large sized organizations contract management brings challenges of its own. This means that in order to enhance better project performance, managers must ensure that their terms and conditions are largely defensible. According to the survey by the international association for contract and commercial management of 2008, there are fewer high value global project coming to the market and an increasing number of ‘second tier’ companies entering the market and seeking to secure smaller but potentially more complex projects.

Risk analysis presents opportunities that allow the projects to achieve improved optimization through changes to production, process or organizational strategy.  In addition, firms, investing in project organization often do so in order to become flexible adaptable and customer oriented towards achieving efficiency in service delivery (Lind, 2018). The National Audit office (2008) indicates that focus is frequently placed on the procurement process itself than the implementation of the contract yet it is only after the contract is awarded that the benefits of the procurement process can be realized. Risks if well-handled have the ability to decrease costs and improve project performance, (South Africa: Contract Management Guide, 2010).

The success of a project is largely influenced by what happened during the risk analysis phases, the terms and conditions that have been agreed and the type of relationship between customer and supplier (The National Audit office, 2008; Rendon, 2006). The UN practitioner’s handbook (2006) indicates that each project is unique from the other and as such must be handled distinctively. The objective, the resources to be used, the start and end dates, coordination and planning of activities as well as the documentation because each contract process vary greatly.

Rendon (2008) contends that contents of the project are a key activity in the procurement process. He observes that one of practices involved would be conducting among research to collect and analyse information about how a specific industry or sector process contain types of products and services and the best ways of ensuring that customer needs are delivered and met timely in order to create efficiency in service delivery system. Such information would include contract strategy, type of contract used, pricing arrangements as well as terms and conditions with a view of ensuring better project performance.

The Contract Management Guide (2010) observes that practicing good contract management has the capacity to decrease costs and enhance service delivery thus guaranteeing the quality obtained. Responsibilities for managing service delivery must be clear and appropriately apportioned between the organization’s contract manager and its service provider’s representative for attainment of effective service delivery (UNOPS Procurement manual 2010: the UK Office of Government Commerce, 2008). This helps to evaluate whether or not the provider is delivering the project or services or goods specified in a timely manner, in the quantity required and ensuring that the quality of the services provided are up to standard, (Sigma, 2011).

According to the project management guide (2002), project management is one of the most important project management and time management techniques. It involves preparing a sequence of steps to achieve some specific goals. Management of a contract provides a strategy for an organization to plan on how to meet the needs of a specific customer’s and also to improve on its level of service delivery. For project between two parties provides a platform for project strategy. Arto et al, (2008) define project strategy as a direction to a project that contributes to success of a project in its environment. They interpreted direction in this context to mean either one or several of the following; goals, plans, service deliveries, means, methods, tools or governance system and mechanisms.

New regulatory requirements, globalization, an increasing number of signed/awarded contracts and their complexity have resulted in an increasing need to put more emphasis on the importance and benefits of effective project performance, (Abadeen group, 2004: Elsey, 2007). After an organization awards a contract it must monitor to ensure the risks that can hinder project performance is completely minimized.  This implies that the service has been provided according to the agreed standards and price. Protiviti, (2009), argues that not having a formal, well defined and documented contract management process in place can have significant long term impact on the organization’s ability to track and monitor service delivery as well as meet stakeholders’ expectations.

1.1.2 Theoretical background

The Diffusion of Innovation Theory, formulated by Everett Rogers in 1962, explains how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technology spread through cultures. Rogers identifies five categories of adopters based on their innovativeness; Innovators (2.5%), These are the risk-takers willing to try new ideas. Early Adopters (13.5%) are Respected opinion leaders who adopt new ideas early but carefully. Early Majority (34%) are Individuals who adopt new innovations before the average person. Late Majority (34%) are Skeptical individuals who adopt innovations after the average person. Laggards (16%) are Last to adopt an innovation, focused on traditions. When applying this theory to risk assessment and project performance, several key insights emerge; Innovation Adoption and Risk Identification (Call, & Herber, 2022).  Innovators and Early Adopters are more likely to embrace and identify potential risks associated with new technologies and methodologies early in the project lifecycle. This proactive identification helps in developing mitigation strategies before risks manifest into issues. Early and Late Majority may require more evidence and validation before acknowledging these risks, potentially delaying response times. Projects that involve new innovations must consider the adoption curve in their risk assessment strategies. Understanding which stakeholders belong to which adopter category helps in tailoring communication and risk mitigation approaches effectively (Menzli et al., 2022).

Innovators and Early Adopters can be leveraged to champion new ideas and validate risk mitigation strategies, providing a buffer for the more cautious Early and Late Majority. Projects that manage to integrate new innovations smoothly tend to perform better, as these innovations often lead to improved efficiency and effectiveness. However, the adoption process itself introduces risks that need careful management. Delays in adoption among the Early and Late Majority can impact project timelines and performance. If risks associated with new innovations are not addressed early on, they may cause significant disruptions later in the project lifecycle (Xia et al., 2022).

Effective change management is crucial in projects involving new innovations. By understanding the diffusion curve, project managers can develop targeted training and support programs to address the concerns of Late Majority and Laggards, thereby reducing resistance and improving overall project performance. It is important to Identify which stakeholders fall into each adopter category and Tailor communication and risk management strategies accordingly. Engaging Innovators and Early Adopters in risk identification workshops. Their insights can provide early warnings about potential issues (D’Souza et al., 2024).

Developing communication plans that address the specific concerns and risk perceptions of each adopter category. This ensures that all stakeholders are adequately informed and prepared. Continuously monitor the adoption process and gather feedback from all adopter categories. Use this feedback to refine risk mitigation strategies and improve project performance. The Diffusion of Innovation Theory offers valuable insights into how innovations spread within a project environment and the associated risks. By leveraging this theory, project managers can improve risk assessment and enhance project performance by understanding and addressing the concerns of different adopter categories. This proactive approach to risk management ensures that new innovations are integrated smoothly, leading to more successful project outcomes (Acikgoz, Elwalda, & De Oliveira, 2023).

1.1.3 Conceptual background

Risk assessment is a systematic process of evaluating potential risks that may be associated with an activity, process, project, or any situation where there is uncertainty about potential outcomes. It involves identifying hazards, analyzing and evaluating the associated risks, and determining appropriate measures to control or mitigate those risks to an acceptable level. Risk assessment aims to enhance decision-making by providing a structured approach to understanding and managing risks effectively (Adegbite et al., 2023). Project performance generally refers to the evaluation and measurement of how well a project is meeting its objectives and delivering its intended outcomes. It encompasses various aspects such as, the extent to which the project is completing tasks and milestones according to the planned timeline. Cost Management: How well the project is adhering to the budget allocated for it, including controlling costs and avoiding overruns. Quality of Deliverables: The degree to which the outputs or deliverables of the project meet the specified quality standards and requirements (Ika, & Pinto, 2022).

Scope Achievement: Whether the project is delivering all the agreed-upon scope elements and features. Stakeholder Satisfaction: The satisfaction levels of stakeholders involved in or affected by the project, including clients, sponsors, and end-users. Risk Management: How effectively the project identifies, assesses, and mitigates risks that could impact its success. Resource Utilization: How efficiently project resources (such as human resources, materials, and equipment) are being used to achieve project goals. Adaptability and Flexibility: The project’s ability to respond to changes in requirements, scope adjustments, or external factors without significant negative impact. project performance assessment provides insights into whether a project is on track to achieve its intended outcomes and where improvements may be needed to enhance its success.

1.1.4 Contextual Background

In contemporary project management, effective risk assessment is pivotal for identifying, analyzing, and mitigating potential risks that could impede project performance. Despite its recognized importance, recent years have witnessed a significant increase in the complexity and scale of global projects, influenced by factors such as globalization, outsourcing, intense market competition, and complex partnerships (Krappe & Kallayil, 2003). This trend underscores the critical need for robust risk management practices to ensure projects are delivered on time, within budget, and meet quality standards.

Organizations increasingly rely on external contractors and suppliers as integral parts of their operations, necessitating advanced capabilities in contract management to maintain competitiveness (Rendon, 2006). While maturity models are widely used to enhance processes like software development, their application to contract management is still emerging as a best practice. This gap highlights a growing need for improved methodologies in managing contractual relationships to mitigate risks effectively and optimize project outcomes.

Projects inherently involve uncertainties that manifest as risks from technical challenges, resource constraints, regulatory changes, and external environmental factors (Wolniak, 2022). Proactive risk assessment enables project managers to anticipate and address potential disruptions early, thereby minimizing adverse impacts and enhancing the likelihood of achieving project objectives. However, the current landscape reveals a disparity where the emphasis on procurement processes often overshadows post-award contract management, leading to unrealized benefits and compromised project performance (National Audit Office, 2008).

Understanding the profound influence of effective risk management on project outcomes is crucial for achieving stakeholder satisfaction and organizational success (Mockler, 2010). Yet, challenges persist in ensuring that project terms and conditions are sufficiently robust to withstand complexities and changes inherent in modern business environments (South Africa: Contract Management Guide, 2010).

Moreover, while various theories and models, such as the Diffusion of Innovation Theory (Rogers, 1962), offer insights into managing organizational change and innovation adoption, their application in mitigating risks to project performance remains underexplored (Deligiannaki & Ali, 2011).

Therefore, the need to advance risk assessment tools and techniques tailored to modern project environments becomes imperative to optimize project performance and sustain competitive advantage amidst evolving global dynamics and contractual complexities. Future research should focus on developing and implementing innovative risk assessment frameworks that address these contemporary challenges effectively.

1.2 Statement of the problem

Uganda Electricity Distribution Company (UEDCL) is one of the four successor companies of Uganda Electricity Board (UEB). The company came into operation on 1st April 2001 and was put under the supervision of the Ministry of Energy and mineral development, Public Enterprises Reform and Divesture (PERD) and Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) on behalf of Government as the proprietor. UEDCL was formed on the premise of gaining financial self-reliance through distributional provision of safe, adequate and quality energy services, that are reliable, focusing on the customer satisfaction and stakeholders’ appreciation to enhance investment and industrial development criteria (UEDCL Mission Statement Brochure, 2001). Although there was a rising trend of sales growth of about 11% between 2001 and 2003, investment in receivables, proportionately went up by 22% and the impairments for default losses shot up to the tune of 93%, an indicator of UEDCL’s funds tie-up in credit strategy investment and consequential adverse credit extension returns in regard to stakeholders’ values, corporate survival and corporate image. The government aims to increase power capacity from 943 MW in 2018 to 3,500 MW by 2025 and to more than 40,000 MW by 2040 (Vision 2040, NPA, 2007; NDP III, NPA, 2020). While the coverage of the sector’s infrastructure has already critically improved over the past decade, still only a small portion of the population and businesses has access to reliable grid electricity. The Auditor General’s report of 2022 examined 100 key initiatives across six departments and units. It found that 47% of tasks were fully implemented, 45% were partially implemented, and 7% were not implemented within the specified timeframe. These initiatives were aimed at achieving various targets such as increasing customer numbers, assessing asset useful life for UMEME and WENRECO, maintaining energy losses below ERA targets, and acquiring audit management software and data analytics tools. However, these activities fell short of their objectives. In the financial year 2021/2022, the budgeted customer additions were 36,782, but only 7,489 (20%) customers were connected. This failure to meet target customer numbers is attributed to a shortage of connection materials. The primary causes for this performance shortfall are identified as the inconsistent supply of connection materials within the ECP framework and delays in procurement processes. Consequently, the planned activities could not be executed as intended, resulting in the failure to achieve project performance. This “risk” was not anticipated at the point the project was being planned.

1.3 Purpose of the study

The purpose of the study is to examine the influence of risk assessment on project performance at Uganda Electricity Distribution Company limited.

1.4 Objectives of the study

1. To examine the Influence of stakeholder involvement Risk on project performance at Uganda Electricity Distribution Company Limited
2. To assess different Technology risks and how they impact project performance at Uganda Electricity Distribution Company Limited

• To examine the influence of contract management risk assessment on project performance at Uganda Electricity Distribution Company Limited

1.5 Research questions

1. What is the Influence of stakeholder engagement Risk Assessment on project performance?
2. What are the different Technology risks and how do they impact project performance?

• What is the influence of contract management risk assessment on project performance?

1.6 Research hypothesis

1. There is no relationship between stakeholder engagement Risk and project performance.
2. There is no influence of Technological risks on project performance.

• There is no significant relationship between contract management and project performance.

1.7 Significance of the study

• The study will help managers in identifying potential risks early, project managers can devise strategies to mitigate or avoid them, ensuring projects are completed on time and within budget.
• Effective risk management ensures that the project’s deliverables meet the desired quality standards, which is essential for stakeholder satisfaction and the long-term success of the project.

• The research will explore various risk assessment methodologies, providing a comprehensive overview of best practices and innovative approaches. This can help standardize risk management processes across industries.
• By focusing on the development of advanced risk assessment tools and techniques, the study will contribute to the evolution of project management practices, making them more robust and adaptable to complex environment.

1.8 Conceptual frame work

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.0 Introduction

This chapter presents theoretical and review of literature by objective relevant to the variables of study, and summary of literature review, indicating the lessons learnt and the gap the study is trying to fill. Literature review also discusses various authors that have carried out studies in the subject of the risk assessment on project performance in order to enable the researcher appreciate what they have found out as well as the methodology used. Review of the literature will help in clarifying the research problem and ultimately answering the research problem.

2.1 Stake holder involvement

Stakeholders vary in their impact, significance, interest, and relevance in relation to contract management and service delivery objectives, to manage complex contracts with multiple stakeholders, it is useful to establish committees with membership that is representative of stakeholders (Gichimu, & Mutuku, 2022). These committees provide a structured approach for communicating with relevant parties. Incorporating stakeholders in the day-to-day operations of managing their own service delivery through effective contract management enables them to receive goods and services that meet their requirements and maintain sufficient customer satisfaction sustainably (Vrečko, Tominc, & Širec, 2023).

The need for measures to provide feedback to user departments, track procurement progress, and implement service delivery procedures to attain value for money. Engagement with stakeholders develops an open and inclusive environment where information, comments, opinions, and criticism are valued and used (Wu et al., 2023).

Stakeholder involvement is increasingly recognized as a crucial factor in project performance across various industries. This literature review explores the influence of stakeholder involvement on project performance, focusing on key themes such as risk management, project success, and the dynamics of stakeholder relationships. Stakeholder involvement is pivotal for the successful execution and completion of projects. stakeholders include any group or individual who can affect or is affected by the achievement of the organization’s objectives. Involving stakeholders in the project lifecycle can enhance decision-making, ensure resource allocation, and improve project outcomes (Bobae, 2024).

Risk management is a fundamental aspect of project performance. The involvement of stakeholders in risk management processes can lead to better identification, assessment, and mitigation of risks, engaging stakeholders early in the project helps in recognizing potential risks and developing strategies to manage them, active stakeholder participation reduces uncertainties and enhances project predictability (Siddiqui, Qureshi, & Shaukat, 2024). Project success is often measured by the timely completion of projects within budget and scope while meeting quality standards. Several studies have demonstrated a positive correlation between stakeholder involvement and project success. For instance, effective stakeholder management practices contribute to improved project performance, particularly in terms of meeting project objectives and stakeholder satisfaction, that understanding stakeholder needs and expectations is essential for achieving project success (Ndayizeye, & Munene, 2022).

The dynamics of stakeholder relationships can significantly impact project performance including managing stakeholder relationships involves balancing conflicting interests and fostering collaboration, the importance of trust and communication in maintaining healthy stakeholder relationships (Lim et al., 2022). Effective communication ensures that stakeholders are well-informed about project progress, changes, and challenges, thereby facilitating their support and involvement. Despite the benefits, involving stakeholders in projects presents several challenges. Conflicting interests among stakeholders can lead to disputes and delays, the complexity of managing diverse stakeholder groups requires significant effort and resources, that project managers must possess strong negotiation and conflict resolution skills to address these challenges effectively (Kipkoech, 2022).

As the execution phase progresses, organizational groups and stakeholders become more involved in planning for the production and support of the contract. Bringing major groups and stakeholders together to discuss and exchange knowledge in contract implementation is rewarding (Nana, 2022).  There is often a disconnect between representatives of major groups and stakeholders who contribute at the policy level and those who act as implementing parties at the grassroots level, facilitating the poor performance of many contracts, stakeholders should be considered by expanding assets for easy access and collaboration of disadvantaged groups to participate and influence control and hold access levels (Rabechini et al., 2022).

The aim of having a relationship between stakeholder involvement and project performance is to keep communications open and constructive, non-adversarial, and based on mutual trust, this assists in preventing problems from arising and resolving them timely if they do arise, having a professional, constructive relationship aids effective performance management, particularly in decision-making processes during service delivery (Nana, 2022). Consequently, managing complex contracts with multiple stakeholders requires establishing committees with membership that represents stakeholders and end-users (Derakhshan, & Turner, 2022).

Stakeholder as any individual or group with a vested interest in the outcome of a body of work. A stakeholder can also be any person or group who has an interest in the project or could be affected by its delivery or outputs (Ebekozien, Aigbavboa, & Ramotshela, 2024). Maintaining a good relationship does not mean that concerns of non-compliance or underperformance cannot be discussed and acted upon. Instead, it means that such issues can be discussed and resolved cooperatively. The approach to stakeholder involvement in service delivery varies depending on the contract, but specific responsibilities should not be neglected, even if there is no nominated individual assigned to the role of relationship manager (Mir, & Rezania, 2022).

Stakeholders’ demand for transparency and accountability is fundamental for project performance in parastatal bodies in Uganda effective project performance relies on a commitment to engage and communicate openly and honestly with stakeholders. These stakeholders include politicians, public officials/end users (not delivering according to rules or entitlements, not monitoring providers for appropriate service levels), and providers (not maintaining service levels in terms of access and quality). Stakeholders are used to improving communications, obtaining wider buy-in for projects, gathering useful data and ideas that enhance public sector or corporate reputation, and providing more sustainable decision-making for service delivery across parastatal bodies (Cellerino, & Mancini, 2022).

The necessary technical skills, knowledge, and experience, along with the appropriate level of authority required of the members of the stakeholder team, the ability of team members to work together effectively, and the significance of the role of the contract manager should be recognized for each project (Dziadkiewicz et al., 2022).

A successful relationship must involve the project performance that meet requirements. The approach to managing stakeholder relationships varies depending on the type of contract. Stakeholders vary in their impact, significance, interest, longevity, and relevance concerning service delivery objectives (Oni, & Madson, 2022), For some non-strategic contracts, a more tactical approach may be suitable. For long-term strategic contracts, the emphasis on building a relationship will be much greater. In fact, the original procurement requirement may have been for a relationship between stakeholders and project performance providers to be realized rather than for a specified set of services/products to be provided. Stakeholders are diverse for each contract and may change depending on circumstances (Gideon et al., 2023).

Most development contracts focus less on societal information but emphasize that stakeholder analysis should involve disadvantaged groups in the needs assessment process to ensure their needs are properly catered for, necessitating participatory development planning. In long-term contracts, where interdependency between customer and provider is inevitable, it is in the organization’s interest to make the relationship work. The three key factors for success are trust, communication, and recognition of mutual aim (Li et al., 2022). Establishing clear lines of responsibility and accountability for all decision-making is another important aspect of successful contracting and project performance (Alamoudi et al., 2022). Ensuring the necessary authorizations and delegations are in place at the beginning of the contracting cycle is crucial to ensuring all contracting decisions and payments are valid and legally appropriate. These instruments should be periodically reviewed and kept up to date. It is in the contracting authority’s interest to make the relationship work as the costs of early termination and the consequences of poor performance and unplanned changes of economic operator are highly damaging (Ingvarsson et al., 2023).

2.2 Contract management risks

Risk assessment is a critical component of project management that significantly impacts project performance. Both qualitative and quantitative methods have their strengths and weaknesses, and hybrid approaches can provide a balanced solution. Effective risk management strategies, including clear communication, continuous monitoring, and the use of technology, are essential for ensuring project success (Das et al., 2022). The involvement of the intended beneficiaries of government services into monitoring service delivery is a critical component in measuring the performance of government delivery of appropriate and quality services. Currently the emphasis of government’s monitoring is on internal government processes and the voice of the intended beneficiaries/stakeholders is largely absent. This presents a risk, as the picture is not complete. It is therefore necessary to support the systematic ways to bring the experiences of stakeholders into the monitoring of services, this will provide a measure of the gap between the perceived and the actual experiences of service delivery, for both user and provider (Saad et al., 2022).

Project success does not come easily. Much has been contributed over the last decade to our understanding of the nature of and reasons for successful and unsuccessful project completion. In addition, many projects fail to complete at all. Sometimes failure to satisfy all the original goals of a project can still be regarded favorably if the main sponsor is nevertheless satisfied with the outcome and the key stakeholders have gained in some way. In general, the key development considerations are to have the goal clearly defined, to plan how to realize that goal and to implement that plan (Omotayo et al., 2024).

Anyone involved with a project wants it to be a success. The issue of project success is frequently discussed, yet ideas of what constitutes a successful project are many and varied, many people are aware of projects that come in on time and under budget and were nevertheless considered failures, yet the opposite is equally true (Ma et al., 2022).

Many cases can be cited from the literature and anecdotal data of projects that fall short of expectations in one or more of the triple constraint items (time, cost and quality), or in terms of client satisfaction and yet the project team officially announces the project a success. Success can mean different things to different people. An interesting example of this has been provided: ‘An architect may consider success in terms of aesthetic appearance, an engineer in terms of technical competence, an accountant in terms of dollars spent under budget, a human resources manager in terms of employee satisfaction (López‐Concepción, et al., 2022). Chief executive officers rate their success in the stock market. Each project has different and unique stakeholders who have their own specific requirements for a project and therefore their own measure of what good project performance is and finally what a successful project entails. Risks and uncertainties characterize many activities be they in production, services, and exchange. They affect the fundamental variables that determine planning, implementation, monitoring, adjustment, behaviour and explain choices, and bring about decisions (Yang et al.,2022).

lack of knowledge of events and activities; and lack of appropriate technology to handle the events and activities. Project risks are also the results of both exogenous and endogenous factors, the main forces behind the development are man’s desire to manage risks. They asserted that the ancient struggle to conquer enemies and the transformation of nature to culture by applying technology is about managing risks. This is to make food supply reliable, the habitat safe and comfortable; work tolerable, transport and communication reliable, sickness curable, that project risk management is considered by most organizations involved in projects as a key discipline that can make or unmake companies attain project objectives (Akinradewo et al., 2022). In the decision theory, a risk may lead to either positive or negative consequence or the concept of risk reflects the variation in the distribution of possible outcomes. Thus a risky alternative is one for which the variance is large. The view of risk used in decision theory, however, is not consistent with the empirical studies of how managers define risk (Musyimi, 2022).

Monitoring is a continuous function that aims primarily to provide management and the main stakeholders of an on-going programme or project with early indication of progress or lack of achievement objective, without monitoring there is no way of knowing if the contractors work is in line with the contract terms. Monitoring is also regarded as the process of assessment and measurement of progress in implementing development interventions (Ovcina,  & Arslanagic-Kalajdzic, 2024).

Contract monitoring enables evaluating agency performance and determining the quality of project performance. The purpose of monitoring is to  improve programme performance through early identification of questions and answers resolutions and identify potential problems that may require additional surveying, evaluate strategy service performance control to ensure there is a reliable basis for validating service delivery and to ensure that financial documentation is adequate and accordingly so that costs will not be questioned later on and above all to determine the level of stake holder involvement in the future dates so that an organization is able to evaluate its service provider performance (Van Besouw, & Bond-Barnard, 2021).

Monitoring the performance of the contractor is a key function of proper contract administration. The purpose is to ensure the contractor is performing all duties in accordance with the contract and for the entity to be aware of and address any developing problems or issues. The writer further asserts that, the contract manager/administrator is responsible for the oversight of all contractors, suppliers and service providers, by monitoring their compliance with the terms and conditions of their respective contracts to ensure greater service delivery. “Strategic public engagement in providing an oversight role in the delivery of public services is an essential dimension of building public accountability in local government, delivering basic services than it has in strengthening constructive public engagement about delivery where the public has access to recourse for the government’s poor performance (Tuyishime, & Nyambane, 2021).

Contract monitoring emphasis is usually on collecting and analysing information to provide assurance to the acquiring entity that progress is being made in line with agreed timeframes and towards providing the contract deliverables. Monitoring can be undertaken directly by the acquiring entity or through a third party arrangement. Monitoring teams/persons are required to prepare and maintain documents and records pertaining to the procurement process and the administration of contracts following award of contracts to successful firms. Monitoring may be undertaken directly by the acquiring entity or indirectly by 3^rd party but the overall responsibility for accepting contract deliverables remains with the acquiring entity. Information provided by a third party or the contractor for monitoring purposes should be reviewed and audited, as necessary, to ensure its accuracy and reliability. Information provided may be verified through end-users who may be consulted to establish whether the goods and services they received met their requirements in respect to performance metrics like; quality, timely delivery, and cost. While the broad arrangements for actual monitoring over the life of the contract should generally have been set out in the contract itself, they may need further or more detailed explanation at contract start up or during the transition phase (Donkers et al., 2021).

The level and formality of any approach to monitoring needs to be governed by the complexity of the contract and or the degree of risk involved. In some cases, the approach to monitoring may be set out in a checklist, in others, a plan setting out detailed monitoring arrangements may be needed. It is imperative to focus monitoring activity on key deliverables because detailed monitoring can be costly and can unjustifiably shift the focus away from achieving contract outcomes (van de Ven, 2021). This may require establishing priorities for measurement at specific intervals in service provision. Having a systematic approach to monitoring will assist in identifying any potential problems and allow early corrective action to be taken and timely reporting to senior management and other stakeholders (Edirisinghe, & Woo, 2021).

Monitored services, contracting may reduce costs not only because vendors might produce services more efficiently, but also because vendors may perform management tasks like monitoring more efficiently. The authors further indicate that service delivery contracting includes not just allocating to vendors responsibility for producing the service but also includes delegating to vendors important management responsibilities, such as monitoring the quality of service outcomes to which internal monitoring can be supplemented (Alaloul et al., 2022).

Contract monitoring takes place in three separate areas which are; This evaluates the contractor’s compliance with the Terms and Conditions included in the contract. Administrative monitoring includes such areas such as the contractor’s compliance with insurance coverage and any licensure requirements. Another significant area of administrative monitoring is the evaluation of compliance with the Living Wage Regulation where a Scheme contract is being monitored.

Achieving project performance forms the basis to adoption and implementation of effective project risk management strategies. ICT project risk management strategy is embedded to organizational internal control and audit, a condition necessary for effective project risk management measures in the ICT project (Speklé et al. 2017). This hence influences the enterprise management focus on project control and technological control which supports project requirements and governance to attain the success in project performance. Risk management strategies essentially influences the success of project performance (Jin and Yean, 2019). This is so because effective risk management strategies and successful project performance has an intimate relationship. For instance, risk identification identified the potential risks that might influence the project objectives (Baloi & Price, 2022). Sundararajan (2014) stated that if risk events are not handled and managed properly, consequences such as increasing the financial costs, changing the capital structure, delaying the building or facility operations, overrun in the budget, loss of cash inflow, lead to liquidated damages claims, production of poor quality end product, project rework after completion and so on might occur.

Monitoring in this area may cover reviews of the agency’s invoices to ensure that they are being submitted timely and in the format specified in the contract. The monitor is likely to check that the billed rates included on the invoice agree with the contractually agreed upon rates and those units of service, or activity being billed for, are supported by adequate documentation (Mohamad et al., 2021),  If the contractor is compensated on a cost reimbursement basis, the monitor would verify that that the contractor’s accounting system adequately accounts for costs being reimbursed and costs are documented, reasonable and allowable. Other areas for review would be whether the accounting system separately accounts for the contracted program if the contractor operates more than one program, and that shared administrative costs are apportioned to the various programs using a cost allocation plan (Baloi & Price, 2022).

Monitoring the performance of the contractor is a key function of proper contract administration. The purpose is to ensure that the contractor is performing all duties in accordance with the contract and for the agency to be aware of and address any developing problems or issues (Statewide Contract Management Guide, 2014).Evaluates whether or not the contractor is adequately delivering the agreed upon services specified in the Statement of Work in a timely manner, in the quantity required and that the quality of the services provided. Program performance measures measure both how well services are provided, and its impact on improving outcomes for the end users and the general public. Project performance reviews are usually based on a review of pre-determined records such as contract management plans, minutes, payments, variations and performance reports among other documents (Mutheu, & Perris, 2021).

However, depending on the complexity and contract requirements, the contract monitoring areas can change from organization to the other or contract to the other. What is important is to ensure that what has been agreed upon between the entity and the contract meets the entity’s policies and procedures and is being adequately met by the provider as agreed in the contract (Gara et al., 2021).

2.3 Technological risks

The launch of Healthcare.gov in 2013 faced numerous technological challenges, including software bugs and inadequate load testing, leading to significant project delays and public criticism. This case underscores the importance of thorough testing and risk assessment in managing technological risks. In 2017, Amazon Web Services experienced a major outage due to hardware failures, affecting numerous businesses worldwide. The incident highlighted the need for robust redundancy plans and effective communication strategies in mitigating technological risks. Technological risks pose significant challenges to project performance, but with proper risk management strategies, these risks can be mitigated. Emphasizing comprehensive risk assessments, agile project management, continuous monitoring, and investment in training can enhance project resilience against technological failures. Future research should focus on developing more sophisticated risk prediction models and exploring the role of emerging technologies in mitigating these risks.

Information systems software covers vast areas of technologies such as mobile and wireless technology, telecommunications, software development, security, Intelligent systems etc. Information system has had a huge impact on industries, the community in general and our daily lives. Information systems software can be applied to many fields. One of the emerging applications in recent years is in most of the organizations to enhance better performance (Kwok Hung Lau & Haibo Huang 2012). Information systems software is fast becoming one of the main drivers of change, posing new strategic challenges (Lee & Kim, 2016). The business environment today has been undergoing unprecedented change and many companies are seeking new ways to stand out from the competition by sustaining their competitive advantage. In today’s highly competitive global marketplace, the pressure on organization is to find new ways of creating and delivering value to customers in growing stronger.

Technology can be thought of as the application of scientific knowledge for practical purposes. From the invention of the wheel to the harnessing of electricity for artificial lighting, technology is a part of our lives in so many ways that we tend to take it for granted (Laudon  & Laudon, 2016).

Pearlson, Saunders, & Galletta, (2016) emphasizes that the need for information systems development cannot be understood unless one also understands the use of software in the organization and unless the software can be applied to the organization to enhance its better performance and enable the organization achieve better performance.

The integration of information technology (IT) and business processes has irrevocably changed the way in which modern organisations operate. The majority of medium-to-large organisations invest significant amounts of time, money and effort on information systems (IS); which combine hardware, software and networking capacity to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of their business processes (Grant  & Meadows, 2016). In some circumstances the IS/IT that supports a business process becomes so integral that it can be very difficult to differentiate between them. The way in which organisational accounting processes have become embedded and reliant upon accounting information systems (AIS) is an apt example of this phenomenon.

Information systems software works hand in hand with the hardware to enable the organization be in position to achieve its goals and objectives. Computers, keyboards, disk drives, iPads, and flash drives are all examples of information systems hardware (Pinedo, 2016).

Software is not tangible it cannot be touched. When programmers create software programs, what they are really doing is simply typing the list of the organization’s instructions that tell the hardware what to do. There are several categories of software, with the two main categories being operating-system software, which makes the hardware usable, and application software, which does something useful. Examples of operating systems include Microsoft Windows on a personal computer and Google’s Android on a mobile phone. Examples of application software are Microsoft Excel and Angry Birds (Chen et al., 2016).

According to Huang et al., (2013), Governments around the world are under the pressure from citizens and business to be more open and transparent in managing public funds, deliver quality public services as per needs of citizens therefore, in the last quarter of 2017, the world wide expenditure on software development was 480 billion dollars (Hughes et al., 2017).This expenditure was in information systems software to enable better service delivery and improve on general public sector performance.

Clearly, Internet and intranet technology has practical integrative applications for organizations. In addition to the practical use of IT as an integrative mechanism, the management of technology also has increased. Andrade & Doolin (2016) makes a strong argument that companies use IT to structure organizations. In addition, he argues that he and many others consider the management of IT as the biggest challenge. The research from this thesis addresses both of these two issues; namely, the use of IT for integration and the implications associated with the management of information technology itself.

According to Rana et al., (2017) information systems initiatives in India was first started in 1990 with a minimal financial investment into National Informatics Centre to enable computerization of operations and automation of the pension fund. This was to eliminate the several challenges with the mismanagement and poor record keeping of the files of the pensioners.

Krecie (2016) reports that the government of Philippines invests around 8-10% of its Gdp on Information systems to enable integrating the operations of government agencies and also on improving transparency in public sector. These financial investments in information systems by different public sector organizations across the globe, is a manifestation of the long-term benefits of the service in enhancing better organizational performance.

Aisara & Pather (2011), In line with world trends, the government of South Africa has over the last decade, recognized the importance of information and communications technology (ICT) and more recently Information systems in improving the standards of service quality and increasing the overall efficiencies of government. Asa result, the government has provided systems software to different public institution amounting to over R14 billion during2015/2016 financial year.

Abdullahi (2014),reports that the government of Nigeria in an effort to eliminate inefficiencies in service delivery and improve general performance, the government invested 32 billion dollars in 2015 to improve on the network systems and elimination of inefficiencies in the Information systems performance.

Karim, 2015 reports that Nigeria has some of the worst public sector delivery systems in the world characterised by corruption and delays in delivery of public services.

Wachira (2015) the use of computer systems in the organization improves performance in a number of ways. Firstly, the computers improve the level of coordination between different departments in a public sector, this has enabled the government across the globe to improve on public service delivery effectiveness and general better organizational performance of the government agencies.

Wachira (2015) further contends that Information systems infrastructure also improves on speed and reliability of organizational transfer and processing of information among members in the organization, this helps the different departments in the organization to send and receive information in a short time which leads to improved performance and better competitive strength of the organization. There is a delay of government services in reaching the people that need it in Ethiopia; some of the departments that people delays in accessing services include the pension (Lavers & Hickey, 2016).

The use of internet services as an effective Information systems infrastructure in Nigeria has been adopted by the government to eliminate unnecessary government costs incurred as a result of paper work and enhance performance of public sector agencies in the country (Ukachi, 2015).

Lavers & Hickey  (2016) indicates that Nigerian government agencies have been blamed for poor response to the needs of the citizens and high costs of the paper work involved in the government administration.

Rotich, (2015) also believes that the adoption of computers  in the organization is to provide better and an effective communication between different departments in the organization and also between the organization and the outside world. The government’s effort to use computers in the monitoring of public agencies is to ensure that business between the government and the citizens is effective and fast.

Wilson et al., (2015) states that the use of websites is to enable long-term relationship between the organization and the customers, he further asserts that websites is where customers keep checking on the major changes in the organizational products. The public sector websites provide information to the customers about the products the organization has. Paul & Pascale (2013) the government of Ghana was able to realize an increase in revenue collection due to the use of advanced software and internet services, using this system, the public could pay for their taxes online. With the use of systems infrastructural facilities, Ghana was able to realize an increase in revenue collection by 22% in 2017 this was estimated at GH¢13.2 billion against the target of GH¢12.8 billion.

CHAPTER THREE

METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introduction

The study aims at investigating the effect of Information systems on performance of government agencies in Uganda. This section presents the research methods that will be used to carry out the study. It covers the research design, Area of study, target population, sample design, sample size, research instrument, and measurement of variables, Data Collection Procedure, data analysis and anticipated problems of the study

3.2 Research Design

The study will adopt a cross-sectional survey research design because of the nature of the variables that will be at hand; to produce data required for quantitative and qualitative analysis and to allow simultaneous description of views, perceptions and opinions at any single point in time (Huntington, (2021). The study also shall use qualitative and quantitative methodologies for data analysis. Quantitative and qualitative methodologies shall be used in examining the effect of Information systems on performance of government agencies. Quantitative research consists of those studies in which the data concerned can be analysed in terms of numbers while qualitative describes events, persons and so forth scientifically without the use of numerical data (Martinsuo, & Huemann, 2021). Quantitative research is based more directly on its original plans and its results are more readily analysed and interpreted. Qualitative research is more open and responsive to its subject (Stoecker,  & Avila, 2021).

3.3 Study Population

Study population is defined as the entire group of people that a researcher wishes to investigate (Stoecker, & Avila, 2021), The entity comprises of 239 employees; 1 Executive Director, 12 Management staff, 40 Division Heads, 5 Regional Heads, and 181 staff members at UEDCL whose duties influence the performance of projects.

3.4 Determination of the sample size

It is impossible to study the whole targeted population and therefore the researcher will take a sample of the population. A sample is a subset of the population that comprises members selected from the population (Rahman et al., 2022). Using Krejcie and Morgan’s (1970) table for sample size determination approach, a sample size of 181 respondents will be selected from the total population of 239 employees.

Table 1: Population, Sample size and Sampling technique

Source: UEDCL Employee List, (2021)

3.5 Sampling techniques and procedure

Purposive sampling, also known as judgmental, selective or subjective sampling, is a type of non-probability sampling technique where the researcher chooses a sample based on what they think in other words they use their personal judgement (Palys, 2008). The study will use Purposive sampling technique because it saves time and also enables the researcher to get information from the right people who have knowledge and skills regarding the subject topic. This technique will be used in selecting, Executive Director, Managers, Division Heads, and Regional members, the researcher will use this technique because these respondents hold enough knowledge and skills regarding the study topic.

The researcher will use simple random sampling technique, According to Amin, (2010) a simple random sample is a subset of individuals chosen from a larger set (a population). Each individual is chosen randomly and entirely by chance, such that each individual has the same probability of being chosen at any stage during the sampling process, and each subset of individuals has the same probability of being chosen for the sample. The technique will be used to select from the other staff members.

3.6 Data collection methods

The section presents data collection methods which include questionnaire survey, interview and documentary review.

3.6.1    Questionnaire Survey

Questionnaire Survey method will be used to obtain the opinion of the respondents regarding the topic under study, according to (Mulisa, 2022). states that questionnaires are important in research because the respondents are given time to think and they don’t feel intimidated. Questionnaire gives the respondents ample time to respond to the questions when ready and they can be kept for future references. This method will be deployed to capture information from Staff Members, Regional Heads, and Division Heads.

3.6.2    Interview

Face-to-face interview is a data collection method when the interviewer directly communicates with the respondent in accordance with the prepared questionnaire (Raucci et al., 2022), This method enables to acquire factual information, consumer evaluations, attitudes, preferences and other information coming out during the conversation with the respondent. Thus, face-to-face interview method ensures the quality of the obtained data and increases the response rate.

Interviews will be used because they fetch a variety of ideas needed for the study and give a deeper understanding of the topic. The method will be used to generate information from Managers and the Executive Director.

3.6.3    Documentary review

This will be used to supplement the data that will be acquired from the interviews and questionnaires. The researcher intends to analyse the documents and publications relating to the study topic. Documents that are expected to be reviewed include UEDCL reports, Journals, and Newspapers.

3.7 Data collection instruments

For each deployed data collection method, there is a corresponding data collection instrument that will be used. The study will use Questionnaire Guides, Interview Guide and Document review checklist as described in the sub-sections below.

3.7.1    Self-administered Questionnaire

The questionnaire shall be designed in a manner that motivates respondents with simple structured questions with the option of providing any addition information to the structured questionnaire as an option to obtain relevant data from them. The questionnaire is structured with both close-ended and open-ended questions. It has aLikert scale 1-5 indicating the level of a respondents’ agreement or disagreement, where 1 represents Strongly Disagree and 5 Strongly Agree.The questionnaires is attached in Appendix I.

3.7.2    Interview Guide

The researcher intends to use an interview guide to collect data in order to find out the vivid picture of the participants’ perspective of the topic. Interviews are an effective qualitative method for getting people to talk about their feelings, opinions and experiences. They are also an opportunity for us to gain insight into how people interpret effect of Information systems on performance of government agencies. The views of the respondents will be a personal reflection of their personal experience relating to the study topic. Appendix II presents the interview guide.

3.7.3    Document Review Checklist

The researcher will use this instrument as attached in Appendix III, in order to capture secondary data and first-hand   information relevant to the study. These documents will help the researcher by revealing the level of performance of government agencies through a review of the analysis reports, journals, and Newspapers.

3.8 Data quality control of instruments

The data collection tools shall be pre-tested on a smaller number of respondents from each category of the population to ensure that the questions are accurate.

3.8.1 Validity

Validity is defined as the extent to which results can be accurately interpreted and generalized to other populations (Heinisch et al., 2022).

Validity is the extent to which an instrument like an interview guide or questionnaire measures the intention of the researcher.

Validity will be tested using content validity index which involves judges scoring the relevancy of the questions in the instruments in relation to the study variables.

The formula for Content Validity Index will be

CVI =

Where CVI = content validity

n= number of items indicated relevant.

N = total no. of items in the instrument

The researcher will give the instruments to the two experts who will make an assessment of whether what the researcher is trying to bring out actually does come out. The instrument will then be tried out on selected individuals of the same characteristics as those that will be in the study to assist in identifying deficiencies in the instruments such as insufficient space to write responses, wrong numbering, vague questions, (Mugenda &Mugenda, 1999).The variables should have a CVI of above 0.70 or 70% as the recommended value for the instruments to be considered relevant (Amin, 2005).The researcher will analyse the data collected and where need arises, the instrument will be re-adjusted and re-design to improve reliability and validity. To improve face validity a pilot study will be carried out at UEDCL.

3.8.2 Reliability

Crobach’s coefficient alpha (a) as recommended by Amin, (2005, P.302) will be used to test the reliability of the research instrument. The instrument is deemed reliable if reliable of 0.7 and above is obtained and therefore, it will be adopted for use in the data collection.

Formula for reliability is

=      ()

Where  = alpha reliability co efficiency.

K=Number of items included in the questionnaire

= sum of variance of individual items

= variance of all items in the instrument.

To ensure credibility and trust worthiness of qualitative data the researcher will ensure that only the officials who are employees of UEDCL will be interviewed.

The coefficient ranges between a=0.00 for no reliability, a =1.00 for perfect reliability. The closer alpha gets to 1.0 the better. If the study findings result to Cronbanch’s Alpha of 0.7 and above, this will signify that research instrument is good enough for the study. According to Amin (2005), all the measurements in the instrument that show adequate levels of internal consistency of cronbach’s alpha of 0.7 and above are accepted as reliable.

3.9 Procedure of data collection

The researcher will obtain an introductory letter from the University to seek permission and enable easy access of information by the researcher from UEDCL, after the permission is granted from UEDCL, the researcher will go ahead and administer questionnaires and interview guides to the selected respondents however the consent of the respondents will be sought before being given questionnaire and the respondents will be informed that the study is strictly for academic purposes.

3.10 Data analysis

Data analysis will involve the use of both quantitative and qualitative techniques.

3.10.1  Quantitative Data Analysis

Data processing will be done by entering the data into a statistics package for social sciences (SPSS) in line with the research questions. Data analysis will be done by also using this statistics package for social sciences (SPSS) to formulate frequency tables where the mean, variance and standard deviation will be obtained.

Under quantitative analysis, process will include editing, classification, coding and presentation. Data will be summarized in frequency tables, percentage; data will be analysed with the use of statistical package for social scientist (SPSS). Quantitative data will be collected through structure questionnaires and it will be cantered into a computer, tabulated and analysed.

Spearman’s correlation coefficient and regression analysis is recommended by Amin (2005, P.378) will be used during data analysis in order to test the strength, degree and direction of the effect of Information systems on performance of government agencies. The formula will be used for this study because it is compatible with SPSS program in addition to being appreciated in analysing data under which the data will be arranged.

3.11Measurements of variables

A five point Likert ordinal scales ranging from; strongly agree which shall be assigned 5, strongly Agree, 4 agree, Not Sure assigned 3, disagree allocated 2 and strongly disagree allotted 1 to obtain responses on the variables. The Likert ordinal scale has been used by numerous scholars who have conducted similar studies such as Bowling, (1997).

3.12Ethical considerations

The researcher will ensure that before giving questionnaires to the respondents their consent will be sought and when they accept to participate in the study they will be given questionnaires.

Confidentiality of the respondents ‘information will be assured and the researcher will also inform them that the study is meant strictly for academic purposes and therefore they should not fear giving information.

Only respondents who are selected will be given questionnaires and only those meant to be interviewed will be interviewed.

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