THE INFLUENCE OF SECURITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH SUDAN
Introduction
Economic growth refers to the sustained increase in a country’s production of goods and services over time, typically measured by the rise in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or GDP per capita, reflecting expanded economic output, higher employment, and improved living standards through quantitative expansion (Todaro & Smith, 2020). In contrast, economic development is a broader, multidimensional process encompassing not only growth but also qualitative improvements in human well-being, including reductions in poverty and inequality, enhanced access to education, healthcare, and basic services, environmental sustainability, and institutional reforms that promote social justice and human capabilities (UNDP, 2022). While growth focuses on aggregate output and can occur without equitable distribution, development emphasizes inclusive, sustainable progress that enhances freedom and quality of life for all citizens, often measured by indices like the Human Development Index (HDI) (Todaro & Smith, 2020).
The economy of South Sudan has faced several challenges this is evidenced by the fact that the public sector expenditure in South Sudan has been increasing since the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), reaching levels that are quite in excess of those of its East African neighbors (Nyang, 2023). The approved budget surged from United States dollars 26,101,800 in 2006 to USD 4.92 million after independence in 2011, almost a twofold increase, while The total proposed expenditure for the fiscal year 2023/2024 was projected to be $16,408,611,199.48 USD., with a budget of $3,503,719,319.63 USD allocated for wages and salaries of civil servants and the army, the vast oil resources that fund almost entirely these expenditures have allowed the newly born South Sudan to sustain public sector expenditures of more than US$ 300 per person a figure that is much higher than its neighbors (Jacobson et al., 2022), though there is a relatively high average public sector spending the economy of South Sudan is facing multiple challenges like South Sudan unemployment rate for 2023 was 12.27%, a 0.12% decline from 2022. South Sudan unemployment rate for 2022 was 12.40%, a 1.47% decline from 2021, South Sudan recorded a trade deficit of 7240.30 SSP Million in 2021 (Raies, 2023).
Discussion
Persistent insecurity has created Direct Destruction of Productive Assets and Infrastructure in South Sudan, since gaining independence in 2011, South Sudan has experienced prolonged armed conflict marked by civil war, inter-communal violence, and political instability. These conflicts have resulted in widespread destruction of both public and private assets, significantly undermining the country’s socio-economic development and state-building efforts. The destruction of assets has affected infrastructure, economic resources, social services, and household property, leaving long-lasting impacts on livelihoods and national growth. One of the most visible impacts of war in South Sudan has been the destruction of physical infrastructure. Roads, bridges, airports, and river transport facilities have frequently been damaged or rendered unusable due to fighting. This has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and the movement of people and goods. Urban infrastructure, including government buildings, markets, warehouses, and residential houses, has also been destroyed through shelling, arson, and looting, particularly in major towns such as Juba, Bor, Malakal, Bentiu, and Wau.
Persistent insecurity in South Sudan has led to Damage to Social Service Facilities, War has led to the widespread destruction of essential social service facilities. Schools and universities have been attacked, occupied by armed groups, or abandoned, leading to the loss of educational infrastructure and learning materials. Health facilities, including hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies, have been damaged or destroyed, often accompanied by the looting of medical equipment and drugs. This has drastically reduced access to healthcare and education, especially for women and children, and weakened human capital development. Other properties that have been destroyed include; Boreholes, water pumps, sanitation systems, and latrines have been destroyed or contaminated, increasing the risk of waterborne diseases, Aid agency offices, warehouses, food distribution centers, and UN compounds have been attacked or looted, disrupting humanitarian assistance, Airports, airstrips, and aviation facilities have been damaged or militarized, limiting humanitarian access and evacuation operations more to that Oil fields, pipelines, pumping stations, and support facilities have been damaged or disrupted, affecting national revenue and infrastructure.
South Sudan insecurity has led to the destruction of Household and Community Assets; At the household and community level, war has resulted in the loss of homes, personal property, savings, and community facilities. Many families have lost household items such as furniture, cooking utensils, clothing, and food stocks through looting and burning of villages. Community assets including water points, boreholes, churches, and local markets have also been destroyed, weakening social cohesion and traditional support systems. The south sudan conflict has reduced economic output by about $4 billion per year, including lower agricultural productivity and lost workforce contribution. If the conflict continues without resolution, South Sudan could incur economic losses in the range of about $22.3 billion to $28 billion over a period of one to five years due to reduced economic activity, destruction of infrastructure, and loss of productive capacity.
The insecurity in South Sudan has led to Environmental and Natural Resource Damage. Armed conflict has also negatively affected environmental and natural resource assets. Forests have been degraded due to uncontrolled logging for fuel and construction by armed groups and displaced populations. Wildlife resources have been depleted through poaching, while land has been contaminated by unexploded ordnance, making it unsafe for farming and settlement. These environmental losses further reduce the country’s long-term economic potential. Oil pollution is the most severe legacy damage, with historical spills from abandoned or poorly maintained facilities in Unity State contaminating groundwater, rivers, and soil. Reports indicate thousands of barrels spilled during the civil war due to sabotage, lack of maintenance, and flooding of waste pits, leading to toxic water sources and health issues like birth deformities in affected communities (Sign of Hope, 2020; PAX, 2023). In 2021–2022, flooding submerged 40% of oil wells in Unity State, risking further leaks from waste pits and pipelines (PAX, 2023). The Sudd wetlands one of Africa’s largest face threats from oil exploration and spills, disrupting ecosystems and fisheries vital for local livelihoods (CEOBS, 2021).
South sudan conflicts has led to Long-Term Implications. The destruction of assets in South Sudan has had far-reaching consequences. It has deepened poverty, increased dependency on humanitarian aid, discouraged investment, and delayed post-conflict recovery and development. Rebuilding destroyed assets requires significant financial resources, strong institutions, peace and security, and sustained international support. Without addressing asset loss and reconstruction, efforts toward lasting peace and economic stability remain fragile. When long-term effects are considered including disrupted growth, lower productivity, continued insecurity, and reduced investment the total cost could reach as high as $122 billion to $158 billion over twenty years. This includes losses to GDP, human capital, and future economic potential.
Insecurity in South Sudan has led to displacement of people, the impact of this insecurity-driven displacement is profound and multifaceted. Over 2 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) and 2.3 million refugees live in overcrowded camps or urban slums with limited access to services, exacerbating acute food insecurity for 7.55 million people (53% of the population) projected for 2026, including famine risks in conflict zones (IPC, 2025; WFP, 2025). Health crises intensify, with disease outbreaks like cholera affecting thousands in displacement sites due to poor sanitation, while 2.3 million children face acute malnutrition (UNICEF, 2025; WHO, 2025). Economically, displacement disrupts agriculture (80% of livelihoods), destroys assets, and blocks markets, contributing to hyperinflation and lost productivity estimated at billions annually (World Bank, 2025). Socially, it perpetuates cycles of violence through trauma, family separation, and gender-based abuses (169 cases documented in mid-2025), while straining host communities and hindering development (Human Rights Watch, 2025; OCHA, 2025). Overall, insecurity-induced displacement not only causes immediate suffering but entrenches poverty, instability, and humanitarian dependence, risking broader regional spillover.
South sudan insecurity has led to ethnic clashes, the ethnic clashes in South Sudan represent a persistent and devastating feature of the country’s post-independence landscape, rooted in historical rivalries, resource competition, and political manipulation of identity lines. With over 60 ethnic groups, the largest being the Dinka (approximately 35–40% of the population) and Nuer (15–20%), clashes often revolve around cattle raiding, land disputes, and grazing rights, exacerbated by climate change and arms proliferation (Wikipedia, 2025a; CFR, 2025). These conflicts transformed from localized inter-communal disputes into politicized violence during the 2013–2018 civil war, when the power struggle between President Salva Kiir (Dinka) and Riek Machar (Nuer) ethnicized the fighting, resulting in mass atrocities and over 383,000 deaths (CFR, 2025; Human Rights Watch, 2025). These conflicts cannot allow people to concentrate into productive actives as developed requires peace and security, more to that in south sudan, Sub-national ethnic violence has surged in 2024–2025 despite the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement, with UNMISS documenting a 204% increase in civilian victims in one quarter of 2025 compared to 2024, including 635 killed, 676 injured, 133 abducted, and 74 subjected to conflict-related sexual violence (UNMISS, 2025; Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, 2025). Key hotspots include Upper Nile, Jonglei, and Central Equatoria, where clashes involve Dinka, Nuer, Murle, Shilluk, and Equatorian groups. For instance, the 2025 Nasir clashes in Upper Nile pitted Nuer militias (White Army) against government forces, killing dozens and displacing thousands amid ethnic accusations (Wikipedia, 2025b; Crisis Group, 2025). Murle-Dinka/Nuer raids in Jonglei continue cycles of child abductions and revenge attacks, while Equatorian resistance to perceived “Dinka domination” fuels insurgencies like the National Salvation Front (USIP, 2021; CFR, 2025).
The insecurity in South Sudan has weakened government’s capacity to deliver essential social services such as health, education, water, sanitation, and nutrition, shifting reliance to humanitarian actors and eroding state legitimacy (UNMISS, 2025). The government’s limited fiscal space dependent on volatile oil revenues disrupted by conflict and bureaucratic/administrative impediments exacerbate this, with insecurity directly restricting access, destroying infrastructure, and diverting resources to military spending (World Bank, 2025; African Development Bank, 2024). In the health sector the insecurity has crippled service delivery: attacks on facilities, looting of supplies, and restricted humanitarian access left many clinics non-functional, contributing to outbreaks like cholera (32,682 cases and 554 deaths reported by February 2025) and mpox (declared in Juba, 2025) (WHO, 2025; OCHA, 2025b). Over 143 health facilities were damaged or flooded in 2025, with stockouts of essential drugs and relocation of staff due to violence, forcing the government to depend on NGOs and UN agencies for 70–80% of services in conflict zones (MSF, 2025; WHO, 2025a). This weakens the Ministry of Health’s authority and public trust.
The war in South Sudan has affected the education system of the country and the enrollment level in around 2025 around 226 schools were impacted by cholera-related closures in 2025), displaced teachers, and destroyed infrastructure, with only limited government reach in insecure areas (UNICEF, 2025). Sub-national clashes in Upper Nile and Jonglei disrupted schooling for thousands, while bureaucratic hurdles and insecurity hinder teacher payments and supplies, the report further indicates that Violence in South Sudan’s Upper Nile and Jonglei states has led to widespread school closures, disrupting education for thousands of children amid escalating sub-national clashes, ethnic mobilization, and militia activity in 2025. As of mid-2025, 187 schools were closed in Upper Nile State alone (across counties like Nasir, Ulang, Baliet, Melut, and Renk), with additional closures in Jonglei, including 36 in Pibor Administrative Area, 2 in Fangak, and others affected by looting, vandalism, and insecurity (UNMISS, 2025).
