Theory of Change (ToC) for the Anti-Human Trafficking Project Phase III, Uganda
The Theory of Change (ToC) for Phase III of The Salvation Army Uganda Territory’s Anti-Human Trafficking (AHT) Project provides a strategic roadmap illustrating how targeted inputs and activities will lead to desired outputs, outcomes, and long-term impact in reducing human trafficking and modern slavery in high-risk border districts such as Busia, Malaba, Lwakhakha, Tororo, Mbale, Namisindwa, and Namayingo. Grounded in lessons from Phases I and II—including the effectiveness of community champions, school-based prevention, survivor reintegration, and multi-stakeholder partnerships—the ToC adopts a rights-based, survivor-centered approach aligned with The Salvation Army’s global Modern Slavery & Human Trafficking Response (MSHTR) framework, Uganda’s National Action Plan on Trafficking in Persons, and the Fight for Freedom strategy. It assumes that addressing root causes like unsafe migration, economic vulnerability, and weak safeguards through skills-based prevention, empowerment, and evidence-driven advocacy will build resilient communities capable of self-sustaining anti-trafficking responses. Key assumptions include continued government and partner collaboration, community buy-in for localized interventions, and stable funding for capacity building; risks such as economic pressures or border conflicts are mitigated through flexible, adaptive programming and strong referral networks.
Visual Representation of ToC (Text-Based Diagram)
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Inputs (Resources & Foundations from Phases I/II)
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Activities (Phase III Priorities)
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Outputs (Immediate Results)
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Outcomes (Short- to Medium-Term Changes)
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Impact (Long-Term Goal)
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Assumptions & External Factors (Enablers/Risks)
- Inputs: Established structures (e.g., 20 Volunteer Community Champions, 5 RoC clubs, partnerships with CATIPU, government, and NGOs); trained personnel (e.g., Corps officers, school patrons, transport actors); evidence from research (e.g., policy briefs on community roles); tools (e.g., Job Verification Manual adaptation, R&R Guidelines); budget for training, media, and support; community assets (e.g., VSLAs, sports clubs, faith networks).
- Activities (Organized by 3 Pillars):
- Prevention: Train 5 new schools in RoC clubs; contextualize Job Verification Manual; engage youth/sports clubs and transport sectors; follow-up on action plans for champions/patrons.
- Survivor Support: Provide psychosocial/medical aid to 25+ survivors; link to livelihoods/vocational training; build peer networks; coordinate repatriation (e.g., with Uganda Airlines).
- Research & Advocacy: Conduct studies on trends/reintegration; develop policy briefs; engage in national/district coordination; host symposiums/media campaigns.
- Outputs:
- 5 new RoC clubs formed/strengthened; 20 champions and 30+ transport actors trained with action plans; Job verification tools disseminated to 500+ youth; 25 survivors supported with R&R; 2 policy briefs produced; 10 media campaigns/talk shows aired; partnerships formalized (e.g., MoUs with schools/government).
- Outcomes:
- Increased community knowledge/skills for safe migration and early risk identification (e.g., 70% of trained participants applying tools).
- Strengthened survivor reintegration and leadership (e.g., 80% of supported survivors economically resilient, participating in advocacy).
- Enhanced multi-stakeholder networks and evidence-based policy influence (e.g., improved referral pathways, adoption of briefs in national plans).
- Impact: Resilient anti-slavery communities in targeted districts, with reduced trafficking incidence, empowered survivors, and sustainable systems for prevention/protection, contributing to Uganda’s national reduction in modern slavery and child abuse.
- Assumptions & External Factors: Stable political environment for border collaboration; community willingness to report risks; donor/government funding continuity; mitigation of risks like economic downturns through livelihood integration and adaptive monitoring.
This ToC emphasizes a shift from awareness to actionable skills, ensuring sustainability by embedding interventions in existing structures (e.g., schools, Corps, VSLAs), with regular M&E (e.g., mid-line surveys, audits) to track progress and adapt.
Logical Framework (Logframe) for the Anti-Human Trafficking Project Phase III, Uganda
The Logframe below builds on the Phase II structure provided, refining it for Phase III’s consolidation focus. It includes indicators, means of verification (MoV), and assumptions/risks, aligned with the three pillars.
| Hierarchy | Description | Indicators | Means of Verification (MoV) | Assumptions/Risks |
| Goal/Impact | To reduce human trafficking and modern slavery in Uganda’s high-risk border districts by building resilient communities through prevention, survivor empowerment, and advocacy. | – 20% reduction in reported unsafe migration cases in target districts. – 80% of communities demonstrating sustained anti-trafficking actions post-project. | – National trafficking reports (Ministry of Gender); end-line survey; project impact evaluation. | Assumption: Government enforces anti-trafficking laws. Risk: Political instability at borders (mitigated by flexible partnerships). |
| Outcome 1: Prevention | Targeted communities in border districts gain practical knowledge and skills to prevent modern slavery and human trafficking through safe migration practices. | – 70% of trained participants (youth, transport actors) applying job verification tools. – 5 new RoC clubs operational with 500+ members actively engaged. | – Action plan follow-up reports; participant surveys; school/club activity logs. | Assumption: Community buy-in for skills training. Risk: Economic pressures drive migration (mitigated by livelihood linkages). |
| Output 1.1 | Community champions, school patrons, and transport actors recruited, trained, and equipped with AHT and safe migration skills; action plans implemented. | – 20 champions and 30 transport actors trained. – 80% of action plans executed (e.g., monthly dialogues). | – Training attendance records; action plan tracking sheets; quarterly reports. | Assumption: Availability of local influencers. Risk: Turnover of champions (mitigated by ongoing support). |
| Activity 1.1.1-1.1.4 | Develop ToR; identify/recruit champions via Corps; train/orient on roles. | N/A (process-oriented). | – ToR document; recruitment lists; training reports. | N/A |
| Output 1.2 | Direct beneficiaries (e.g., schools, communities, government officers) trained as ToTs on MSHT trends, child protection, and safe migration; action plans developed. | – 100 ToTs trained across 5 schools and communities. – 90% with implemented action plans. | – Training certificates; action plan documents; follow-up visits. | Assumption: Stakeholder availability. Risk: Logistical delays (mitigated by phased scheduling). |
| Activity 1.2.1-1.2.12 | Identify schools/communities; train patrons, elders, officers, etc.; refresher trainings. | N/A | – Identification reports; training agendas/feedback forms. | N/A |
| Output 1.3 | RoC clubs formed/strengthened in 5 target schools. | – 5 clubs with 100+ members each. – Monthly meetings held; exchange activities conducted. | – Club formation minutes; activity logs; photos/reports. | Assumption: School cooperation. Risk: School disruptions (mitigated by MoUs). |
| Activity 1.3.1-1.3.4 | Form clubs; provide materials; monthly follow-ups; inter-school exchanges. | N/A | – Materials distribution lists; follow-up reports. | N/A |
| Output 1.4 | TSA International AHT Strategy implemented on prevention. | – Strategy aligned in 5 commands. – Materials disseminated to 200+ beneficiaries. | – Alignment reports; dissemination logs. | Assumption: Territorial support. Risk: Resource shortages (mitigated by partnerships). |
| Activity 1.4.1-1.4.3 | Coordinate with national contacts; align activities; disseminate materials. | N/A | – Meeting minutes; dissemination records. | N/A |
| Outcome 2: Research & Advocacy | Strengthened networks of AHT stakeholders provide multi-agency collaborations for anti-slavery advocacy and response. | – 2 policy briefs influencing national plans. – 10+ advocacy platforms engaged. | – Policy documents; symposium reports; advocacy plans. | Assumption: Partner collaboration. Risk: Policy delays (mitigated by evidence sharing). |
| Output 2.1 | Partnerships formalized; advocacy plans developed; research disseminated. | – 5 MoUs signed. – 1 survey conducted annually. | – MoUs; research reports; workshop minutes. | Assumption: Stakeholder interest. Risk: Competing priorities (mitigated by joint planning). |
| Activity 2.1.1-2.1.8 | Meetings/workshops; MoUs; policy engagement; advocacy plans; surveys. | N/A | – Minutes; signed MoUs; survey findings. | N/A |
| Output 2.2 | Territorial AHT action plan implementation supported. | – Technical support provided to 5 commands. | – Support reports; plan progress updates. | Assumption: Internal capacity. Risk: Staff changes (mitigated by training). |
| Activity 2.2.1 | Provide technical support for Territorial AHT Strategy. | N/A | – Support logs. | N/A |
| Outcome 3: Survivor Support | Victims/survivors supported and linked to safe spaces through partnerships. | – 25+ survivors reintegrated with 80% economic resilience. – Peer networks operational for 20 survivors. | – Case management reports; follow-up surveys. | Assumption: Safe environments. Risk: Re-trafficking (mitigated by livelihoods). |
| Output 3.1 | Service providers mapped; relationships established. | – Updated directory circulated. – 10 survivors linked to support. | – Directory document; referral logs. | Assumption: Provider availability. Risk: Service gaps (mitigated by MoUs). |
| Activity 3.1.1-3.1.3 | Update directory; link survivors; develop MoUs. | N/A | – Directory; MoUs. | N/A |
| Output 3.2 | Victim case management system operationalized. | – Hotline set up; 50 cases managed. – VCMS reports reviewed quarterly. | – Hotline logs; VCMS data; review reports. | Assumption: Tech reliability. Risk: Privacy breaches (mitigated by protocols). |
| Activity 3.2.1-3.2.5 | Set up hotline; petty cash system; MoU with Willow; train staff; review reports. | N/A | – Setup documents; training reports. | N/A |
| M&E Activities | Conduct mid-line survey; end evaluation; annual audit. | – Surveys completed; evaluation report; audit findings. | – Survey/evaluation/audit reports. | Assumption: Data access. Risk: Delays (mitigated by timelines). |
| Exit & Sustainability | Embed in local structures; produce lessons report; terminate contracts. | – Structures operational post-project; report disseminated. | – Exit plan; lessons document. | Assumption: Community ownership. Risk: Funding gaps (mitigated by integration). |
